Forecast: War will not solve the problem of matching forces and  priorities in line with European security principles

ArmInfo. Given the long-standing rejection of the Collective West from the Russian  Federation's position on European security principles, Moscow was  forced to raise the stakes and quite consciously switched to tougher  rhetoric. A similar opinion was expressed by Fyodor Lukyanov,  editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine and chairman  of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the  Russian Federation.

"All this rhetoric aimed at raising the level of confrontation is  accompanied by movements and maneuvers of troops for greater  persuasiveness. And they look quite convincing, as they are met by  the corresponding maneuvers of opponents. The latter, in response to  Moscow's straightforwardness, freely use their own global  information, actively whipping up mass psychosis in Europe regarding  the expected Russian aggression against Ukraine," he stressed.

Returning to the principles of European security, the analyst noted  that they no longer correspond to the balance of forces and  priorities. According to him, Russia and the West are faced with the  result of a rethinking of the Helsinki agreements of 1975, thanks to  which it was possible to fix the system of relations in Europe.  Which, since 1991, due to the collapse of the USSR, have lost their  relevance. In this light, he is convinced that in reality the  scenario of confrontation between the West and Russia is unfolding  precisely because of this inconsistency, and not because of the  situation around Ukraine.

"It is clear that in the past such issues were resolved through wars.  However, in the current situation, the war of large states will not  lead to a resolution of the situation. This leaves the only way - to  negotiate. And taking into account the fact that it is not possible  to achieve such large-scale agreements through classical negotiations  at the table, the parties use methods of persuasion in the form of  demonstrating the threat of the use of force," he states.

According to Lukyanov, there is a limit of such a demonstration,  because its use will bring the confrontation to a completely  different, perhaps unprecedented, level of consequences. For which,  no doubt, the societies of the participating countries are not ready.

"In my opinion, there is a way out of the current situation. While  refusing to give Moscow guarantees not to expand to the East, NATO  and Washington, nevertheless, agree to discuss the Treaty on the  Elimination of Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces and the Treaty on  Conventional Armed Forces in Europe, with a focus on Eastern Europe.  In this light, I see the solution in the formation and signing by the  parties of a sort of modern analogue of the Paris Charter or the  Helsinki Act. After that, it will be possible to start discussing the  INF Treaty and the CFE Treaty," Lukyanov summed up.