Monday, January 31 2022 19:04

ArmInfo. Based on the analysis of the April war and a number of regional, geopolitical and global factors, I forecasted the possibility of a new aggression against  Artsakh and Armenia starting from 2017. Independent political analyst  Saro Saroyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Like then, today I affirm that the conflict around Artsakh is by no  means limited to a clash of exclusively local interests of its  participants themselves. This conflict continues to serve to maintain  the military- political balance of centers of power operating in the  Middle East. Accordingly, its final settlement through two  conflicting societies or mediators is not possible," he said.

In this light, as of today, like five years ago, the analyst  considers it a big mistake to feed the Armenian society, cut off from  geopolitical realities, with the concept that it lacks the desire for  peace and peacefulness in the settlement of the conflict. And the  four-day war, the 44-day war unleashed by Azerbaijan and the ongoing  arms race, the internal situation in Turkey and, most importantly,  the constant upheavals in the Middle East do not at all create  prerequisites for a final settlement of the conflict around Artsakh.

According to Saroyan, starting with the completed loss of 800  hectares of Artsakh territories in the April 2016 war, it became  clear that steps towards peace with Azerbaijan as a means of  overcoming Armenia's problems due to the unresolved Artsakh conflict  were a priori doomed to failure. And the manifestation of humility  and peacefulness in response to the aggressiveness and open hostility  of the Aliyev regime can be explained either by ignorance and  incompetence, or by the personal interest of the Armenian leadership.

Answering a question about the prospects for resolving the problem by  recognizing the independence of Artsakh, Saroyan considered this step  insufficient. In his opinion, the solution of the Artsakh case of  national problems and goals of the Armenian people and Armenian  statehood is possible only through a referendum on the unification of  Armenia and Artsakh, according to the idea of the "Miatsum"  national  liberation movement, which began in 1988.

"However, as five years ago, both in the Armenian and Artsakh  societies, there is still no awareness of their own rights, no will  to exercise them, which, as then, is clearly manifested in the  speeches and behavior of people who consider themselves political  figures, who promote exclusively the policy of humility, tolerance  and peacefulness towards the enemy, which has not changed over the  past 5 years," he stressed.  

At the same time, the analyst does not at all limit the position of  Armenia, Artsakh and the Armenian society as a whole, to the  abovementioned position of the current authorities and opposition.  According to him, among the Armenians, regardless of the area of  residence, there are a number of thinking people who have different  professions, who understand the essence of the problem well. However,  as a result of the information policy on the total substitution of  the public agenda, which has been going on since the days of Serzh  Sargsyan's son-in-law Mikayel Minasyan, the voices and opinions of  such people remain unheeded by society.