Wednesday, January 26 2022 20:11

ArmInfo. In order to assess the possible risks in the process of normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations that has started, among other things, it seems necessary to start from the past.  Associate Expert at the Armenian Institute of International  Relations and Security David Stepanyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

"The process of establishing diplomatic relations with Turkey, no  doubt, contains considerable risks, both for the territorial  integrity and for the sovereignty and future of our country. However,  it must be remembered that the closed borders for the past three  decades and the absence of diplomatic relations with Turkey are  completely did not prevent Ankara from taking an active part in the  44-day aggression of Azerbaijan against Artsakh and Armenia, moreover  to provoke this aggression," he stated.

In this light, the expert assures that if there were diplomatic  relations between Armenia and Turkey, there might not have been a  44-day war at all. Since in this case Ankara could well come to an  agreement with Yerevan and resolve the issue solely in compliance  with the interests of the parties to the conflict and their own  interests, bypassing the interests of at least other regional  players. Regardless of the degree of reality of this hypothetical  scenario, Stepanyan is convinced that the lack of relations and  closed borders with Turkey are in no way a guarantee of preventing  new manifestations of aggression and expansion from Ankara.

In this light, the expert assesses the very fact of the next, third  attempt to normalize relations with Turkey as the right step in the  right direction. Since just sitting and waiting for Turkey to fall  apart on its own, and the territories of Western Armenia to return to  the Republic of Armenia, is at least unproductive.

"Expectations of the automatic reincarnation of the Treaty of Sevres  of 1920, the entry into force of the arbitration of Woodrow Wilson,  all these talks have absolutely no real, namely political and  geopolitical grounds, except perhaps legal ones. And even then,  taking into account the lack of ratification of the Sevres Treaty by  the then Turkish parliament, this factor is highly doubtful. And the  presence of the Kars, Moscow and Lausanne treaties generally puts an  end to any such hopes," he said.

In this light, Stepanyan considers the putting aside of "Sevres  romanticism" by the Armenian society as a step fully in line with the  interests of the Armenian people, the Armenian statehood. According  to the expert, the current international relations and geopolitics  are built on the basis of mutual benefit and pragmatism, in which  there is no place for Sevres and other similar appeals, without a  doubt.

"We always talk about Turkish preconditions whenever the prospect of  relations with Turkey is mentioned.  I propose to recall our own  preconditions regarding Turkey. In particular, the refusal to  recognize the borders of this country, determined by almost all  subsequent international treaties after Sevres. But let's try to  realistically assess our chances of returning our territories. This  will require a third world war, the defeat of Turkey and its allies  in it, the partition of Turkey, the absence of a new Ataturk and, of  course, a new Lenin. Against this background, I believe that our  expectations in the direction of restoring historical justice, to put  it mildly, do not have a real geopolitical foundation," Stepanyan  summed up. 

The first meeting of special representatives in the process of  normalization between Armenia and Turkey took place on January 14 in  Moscow. Vice-Speaker of the Parliament Ruben Rubinyan represented  Yerevan,  and former Ambassador to the USA Serdar Kilic -Ankara. At  the end of the meeting, the Foreign Ministries of Armenia and Turkey  made approximately the same statements about the constructive  atmosphere of the negotiations. And the Russian Foreign Ministry  noted that the parties during the talks showed their readiness to  conduct a dialogue in a constructive, depoliticized manner.