Forecast: An equal withdrawal of troops will end in a new war rather  than peace

ArmInfo.The equal withdrawal of troops proposed by the Armenian authorities to Azerbaijan, followed by delimitation and demarcation of borders, will end in a  new war rather than peace. Ara Papyan, head of the Modus Vivendi  analytical center, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

Earlier, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan announced a  package of proposals submitted to Azerbaijan by Armenia to  de-escalate the situation in the border zone, through an equal  withdrawal of troops, the establishment of additional security  mechanisms, which will speed up the formation of a commission for the  delimitation and demarcation of the border.

On January 20, Security Council Secretary Armen Grigoryan told  reporters that Baku had not yet responded to Yerevan's proposals.  According to him, in the event of a withdrawal of troops, the maps of  the Soviet period will be taken as a basis. According to Grigoryan,  as a result of the delimitation and demarcation of the border, the  settlements of Armenia will not be in the neutral zone, since during  the equal withdrawal of troops the Armenian military will be deployed  exactly near the border settlements. 

"I do not at all share the optimism of our leadership, which believes  that such measures can avoid another war in the future. On the  contrary, an equal withdrawal of troops will be another opportunity  for Baku to gain a foothold in new positions and begin preparations  for another aggression. And I do not think that Azerbaijan will have  to look for a long time and think about a pretext for another attack.  One way or another, if desired, Baku can always stage another  provocation and blame us for it," he said.

The analyst is convinced that the implementation of the equal  withdrawal is completely unprofitable for its initiator Armenia,  since the Armenian military, unlike the Azerbaijani ones, will  retreat on their territory.  First of all, due to Azerbaijan's  failure to fulfill its own obligations, even within the framework of  the ill- fated tripartite statement of November 9, 2020. Despite  Armen Grigoryan's assurances, Papyan considers the prospect of  Armenian border villages being in the neutral zone proposed by  Yerevan a separate threat.

According to Papyan, Azerbaijan has already violated, in many places,  even the administrative borders of the times of the Armenian and  Azerbaijan SSR. Not to mention the fact that the borders between the  republics of a single sovereign state - the USSR cannot and should  not be a guideline for determining the borders of two sovereign  states. The latter, in his opinion, should be determined on the basis  of maps of the times of existence of independent, recognized by the  international community, the Republic of Armenia and the Republic of  Azerbaijan. The analyst evaluates all other proposals as ridiculous  and ultimatum. At least only because they are conditioned by the  desire to ensure the next retreat of Armenia under the threat of war.