Forecast: Processes in Kazakhstan, Ukraine and on the border with  Azerbaijan will continue

ArmInfo.Our last victims on the border with Azerbaijan is the price for the actions of the Armenian leadership in Kazakhstan, however, in general, I consider  the range of these problems in a much broader context - the processes  that began in 2020-2021 in the South Caucasus.  National security  expert Hrachya Arzumanyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

On January 11, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces undertook another  provocation in the eastern direction of the border with Armenia.  Particularly intense fire was opened at the villages of Norabak,  Verin and Nerkin Shorzha. Artillery shots and drone fire were also  heard in the village of Kut. As a result of another act of aggression  by the Aliyev regime, three Armenian servicemen were killed and two  more were injured.

"As of today, we can state that the processes that started with the  beginning of the second Artsakh war in the Caucasus and the Middle  East have now spread and are continuing in the Greater Middle East.  And Central Asia, Afghanistan and Ukraine are already involved in the  Great Game of the 21st century.  Accordingly, if Armenia wants to  know what awaits it in the foreseeable future, then our diplomacy and  intelligence need to perceive and analyze the processes in a much  larger region than the South Caucasus," he said.

According to the expert, the latter is difficult, given the  concentration of these institutions of the Armenian statehood on much  smaller problems than those that arise as of today. And, for example,  to think that the latest processes in Kazakhstan are irrelevant and  will not affect Armenia in any way, will be the height of naivety.  And the latest killings of Armenian soldiers on the border with  Azerbaijan, in his opinion, are only the early warnings from  Kazakhstan.

According to Arzumanyan's forecasts, such a policy tied to regional  impulses will continue. Accordingly, we need to be prepared for this.  The expert predicts the continuation of processes in Kazakhstan,  Ukraine and on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. And in order to keep  abreast of events and try to protect Armenia from related threats to  the relevant institutions, in his opinion, it is necessary to think  within the framework of a logic that embraces the entire Greater  Middle East.

"Armenia's interests in this whole situation require clarification of  relations with existing allies in order to clarify the positions and  bring them into a common framework. And of course, the search for  alternative partners and allies is all with the same goal. However,  being under the pattern of the Russian Federation, the Armenian  government and diplomacy prefer not preventive, but reflexive  measures. This is the main problem of today, the biggest problem of  the Armenian statehood. This is a problem, until the solution of  which it makes no sense to even think about solving the rest. "And if  the state and the authorities do not want to solve this issue, to  formulate their own foreign policy strategy, then the  expert-analytical part of the society, all the Armenians should think  about this," the expert concluded.