Forecast: Turkey may try to increase its influence in the South  Caucasus

ArmInfo.Turkey may well try to take additional steps towards strengthening its influence in the South Caucasus. Sociologist Karen Sargsyan expressed this opinion to  ArmInfo.

"Taking into account the recent quite open statement of Turkish  Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu, according to which Turkey has  absolutely no intention of reckoning with the red lines of Russia,  the South Caucasus can also become a vector in which Ankara may well  try to cross these lines. The latter, without any doubt, creates  additional threats to the security of the Armenian population.  Although the manifestations of Azerbaijani aggression in recent  months have generally diminished, "he said.

In Sargsyan's opinion, the situation is not the best in international  relations in general. In particular, in the light of the recent  actions of Armenia's   strategic ally of Russia in the Ukrainian  direction. According to the sociologist, Moscow's ultimatums  addressed to NATO and the United States do not soften the situation.   That, in general, in his opinion, creates the preconditions for  military clashes on the Russian-Ukrainian border.

Such an unstable situation and, most importantly, the prospects that  accompany it, in the opinion of the sociologist, should induce the  Armenian society and leadership to abandon the stale stereotypes and  begin to assess the geopolitical situation more soberly.  According  to his predictions, the realization of the fact of building our own  country on our own interests, will inevitably lead to the fact that  Armenia's natural allies are France, Greece, Cyprus, India and some  countries of the Arab world.

"All these countries are opponents of the growth of Turkish influence  in our region. And if we realize this elementary fact and begin to  act, taking it into account, then over time our main problem will be  solved - the problem of ensuring security. So far, our society does  not want to see that our military ally has its own interests, which,  unfortunately, contradict ours. It doesn't want to see because of  phobias, moreover, in relation to both allied Russia and enemy  Turkey, and, accordingly, continues to live in an environment of  constant conflict, "he stressed.  

According to the sociologist, these phobias are due to a lack of  understanding in society of further actions, respectively, prospects.  And many people in the country, according to his estimates, still  continue, by force of inertia, to unconditionally hope and rely only  on Russia, linking the provision of their own security exclusively  with Moscow. And these are in spite of the geopolitical realities  that have changed in recent years, a clear reflection of which was,  in fact, the very fact of the 44-day war. The sociologist assesses  this state of affairs as a psychological problem that does not allow  society to realistically assess the situation and realize that  besides the Russian Federation, Armenia has other potential partners  and allies in the world.