ArmInfo. The 9th paragraph of the Trilateral Statement of Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan of November 9, 2020 on unblocking regional communications is in reality a ticking time bomb forArmenia. Expert from the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA), Emma Begijanyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Neither then, nor now, I did not share the optimism and inspiration of the representatives of the ruling party, calculating the economic benefits of Armenia from the expected process of unblocking communications. And I am still convinced that paragraph 9 is the most dangerous for our country in terms of the expected prospects and geo-economic scenarios In the end, I do not at all think that flooding our market with the same low-quality and cheap Turkish goods will contribute to the development of our economy, and this will not even proceed from the interests of our consumers, "she said.
The 9th paragraph of the tripartite declaration of November 9, 2020, in particular reads: "All economic and transport links in the region are unblocked. Armenia guarantees the safety of transport links between the western regions of Azerbaijan and the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic in order to organize the unimpeded movement of citizens, vehicles and goods in both directions. Control over transport links is carried out by the Border Service of the Russian Federal Security Service. By agreement of the Parties, the construction of new transport communications linking the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic with the western regions of Azerbaijan will be ensured. "
The same expected construction - the restoration of the Horadiz - Meghri - Ordubad - Julfa - Yeraskh railway section Begidzhanyan is assessed as generally unpromising for Armenia.
Begijanyan, in general, considers the same expected construction to restore Horadiz-Meghri-Ordubad- Julfa-Yeraskh railway section unpromising for Armenia. According to her estimates, the railway route to Russia through the entire territory of Azerbaijan does not contain any economic preferences for Armenia. First of all, due to the lack of security for transported goods, not to mention people.
In this light, she noted with regret that the results of the 44-day war did not lower the degree of Armenophobia in Azerbaijan, but also increased it further, giving additional impudence to the Aliyev regime. According to the expert, the same situation on the border with Azerbaijan during the whole year does not stimulate the implementation of the railway-unblocking project, not to mention its cost for Armenia.
On December 16, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan confirmed the agreement reached at the meetings with the President of Azerbaijan in Sochi and Brussels on the construction of the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz railway section. In this regard, he instructed to begin preparations for construction on its Armenian section. According to him, Armenia and Azerbaijan plan to complete the construction within 2-3 years.
According to preliminary calculations of the RA Ministry of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures, the restoration of the Yeraskh-Julfa-Ordubad-Meghri-Horadiz railway in Armenia will cost more than $ 226 million. $ 221 million is needed to restore the 45-kilometer section in Meghri, another $ 5 million for restoration kilometer section in Yeraskh.