Forecast: Washington and Paris politely let Moscow go ahead "in  Karabakh" today to criticize it tomorrow

ArmInfo. For the first time after the 44-day war, the EU is actively involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement after Brussels played the role of spectator for many years.

This gives many reasons to assume that the  EU is seeking to rectify this situation. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, Leading Researcher of the  Euro-Atlantic Security Center at the MGIMO Institute of the Russian  Foreign Ministry,  Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of International  Analytics.

"At the same time, it should be emphasized that the  Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is a special case, standing out from  the series of ethnopolitical conflicts in the post-Soviet space from  the " Russia - the collective West" usual format. The West and Russia  do not consider each other as tough opponents in this part of Eurasia  for a number of reasons, the main of which is that neither Armenia  nor Azerbaijan are joining NATO, as well as the fact that the United  States and the EU do not see Russia as a revisionist who is ready, as  in the case of Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Crimea, to change borders  in Armenian or the Azerbaijani direction, "he stressed.

According to the analyst, hence the positive attitude of the same  U.S. regarding Moscow building its own format of interaction with  Baku and Yerevan, parallel to the Minsk format. This is due to the  fears of Washington and Paris to call into question the competence of  the Minsk Group as a whole, if Moscow's actions are condemned. That  would immediately play into the hands of Ankara's aspirations to  minimize [the activities of] the OSCE Minsk Group, which the West  also accuses of geopolitical revisionism.

"And finally, the most important thing is that as of today neither  the United States nor France wants to take responsibility for the  Russian peacekeeping, written in three joint non-institutionalized  statements. And perfectly aware of the whole balancing act between  Baku, Yerevan and Ankara, the time limiter of Russian peacekeeping,  Washington and Paris politely let Moscow "go ahead" Accordingly,  today one should bear in mind the scenario according to which  tomorrow, in case of discrepancies, they will offer themselves as a  more effective moderator, "the analyst forecasts.

However, before that very "tomorrow" comes, the EU and the U.S.,  according to his forecasts, will try to avoid binding themselves with  large-scale obligations in the context of the settlement of the  Armenian- Azerbaijani conflict. Meanwhile, as it is already clear  today that without the security sector, the process of progress will  remain deadlocked. And no one is going to solve this issue without  Russia. According to Markedonov, the current dialogue between Moscow  and Paris, as well as the telephone conversations between Charles  Michel and Vladimir Putin evidences this.

"In this light, the EU's aspirations to reconcile Armenia and  Azerbaijan are difficult to consider as full- fledged competition  with Russia or the possibility of a new alternative to Moscow's  approaches. Brussels is clearly not going to deploy its peacekeepers  in Karabakh or offer Yerevan and Baku EU membership, just trying to  balance its line in the post-Soviet space, in general, and in the  South Caucasus in particular. The real situation in relations between  Azerbaijan and Armenia today is such that without Russia, building  any configuration will be worse than the existing one. All this  allows Europe and the United States to step aside, allowing Russia to  make mistakes. The main thing for Russia is not to make these mistakes, moreover, to work in advance, actively supporting its own peaceful  efforts," the analyst summed up.