ArmInfo. For the first time after the 44-day war, the EU is actively involved in the Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement after Brussels played the role of spectator for many years.
This gives many reasons to assume that the EU is seeking to rectify this situation. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, Leading Researcher of the Euro-Atlantic Security Center at the MGIMO Institute of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of International Analytics.
"At the same time, it should be emphasized that the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is a special case, standing out from the series of ethnopolitical conflicts in the post-Soviet space from the " Russia - the collective West" usual format. The West and Russia do not consider each other as tough opponents in this part of Eurasia for a number of reasons, the main of which is that neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan are joining NATO, as well as the fact that the United States and the EU do not see Russia as a revisionist who is ready, as in the case of Abkhazia, South Ossetia or Crimea, to change borders in Armenian or the Azerbaijani direction, "he stressed.
According to the analyst, hence the positive attitude of the same U.S. regarding Moscow building its own format of interaction with Baku and Yerevan, parallel to the Minsk format. This is due to the fears of Washington and Paris to call into question the competence of the Minsk Group as a whole, if Moscow's actions are condemned. That would immediately play into the hands of Ankara's aspirations to minimize [the activities of] the OSCE Minsk Group, which the West also accuses of geopolitical revisionism.
"And finally, the most important thing is that as of today neither the United States nor France wants to take responsibility for the Russian peacekeeping, written in three joint non-institutionalized statements. And perfectly aware of the whole balancing act between Baku, Yerevan and Ankara, the time limiter of Russian peacekeeping, Washington and Paris politely let Moscow "go ahead" Accordingly, today one should bear in mind the scenario according to which tomorrow, in case of discrepancies, they will offer themselves as a more effective moderator, "the analyst forecasts.
However, before that very "tomorrow" comes, the EU and the U.S., according to his forecasts, will try to avoid binding themselves with large-scale obligations in the context of the settlement of the Armenian- Azerbaijani conflict. Meanwhile, as it is already clear today that without the security sector, the process of progress will remain deadlocked. And no one is going to solve this issue without Russia. According to Markedonov, the current dialogue between Moscow and Paris, as well as the telephone conversations between Charles Michel and Vladimir Putin evidences this.
"In this light, the EU's aspirations to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan are difficult to consider as full- fledged competition with Russia or the possibility of a new alternative to Moscow's approaches. Brussels is clearly not going to deploy its peacekeepers in Karabakh or offer Yerevan and Baku EU membership, just trying to balance its line in the post-Soviet space, in general, and in the South Caucasus in particular. The real situation in relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia today is such that without Russia, building any configuration will be worse than the existing one. All this allows Europe and the United States to step aside, allowing Russia to make mistakes. The main thing for Russia is not to make these mistakes, moreover, to work in advance, actively supporting its own peaceful efforts," the analyst summed up.