Expert on meeting in Brussels: The inevitability of the RF withdrawal  from the South Caucasus and the seriousness of the EU`s intentions  creates the risk of military destabilization of the region

ArmInfo.Artsakh security expert, former adviser to the Artsakh Foreign Minister Hrachya Arzumanyan gave an assessment of the trilateral meeting of the Head  of the European Council and the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan,  which took place yesterday in Brussels.

According to the expert, summing up the results, it can be stated  that Europe has clearly and unequivocally stated that the South  Caucasus is within its interest area and will sooner or later enter  European structures.

"Secondly, the EU offered its platform not only for the economic  integration of the South Caucasus, but also for solving the problem  of borders - demarcation and delimitation, with the understanding  that this is a long process.

Thirdly, all processes in the region, including the opening of  communications, should be based on respect for the sovereignty of  countries and the principle of reciprocity, "Arzumanyan stressed. 

At the same time, he paid special attention to that part of the  statement of the President of the European Council following the  results of the trilateral meeting, which notes that the problem of  restoring the communication infrastructure between Armenia and  Azerbaijan is considered in the broader context of the entire South  Caucasus.  

"President Michel also emphasised the importance of restoring  communications infrastructure between Armenia and Azerbaijan in  particular and the South Caucasus more broadly, while fully  respecting the sovereignty of all countries".  

"This gives the Armenian side the opportunity to link this problem  with the need for Armenia to get out of the communication blockade  and isolation. If you want communication with Nakhichevan, let's  solve this problem together with the problem of Armenia's access to  the Mediterranean ports of Turkey, the Black Sea ports of Georgia,  the ports of the Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean of Iran. 

Armenian diplomacy may speak of the need for a "package" solution to  the problems of the region's communication infrastructure. Moreover,  first the unblocking of Armenia, and then the problem of direct  communication between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which have other  communications through Georgia and Iran. Biden / the United States  has already hinted to Erdogan / Turkey that the latter should follow  this path, "the expert said.

He considers the indication of the critical importance of  humanitarian problems for achieving peace in the region no less  significant. According to the expert, together with the preliminary  decision of the UN international court, this gives Armenian diplomacy  additional opportunities to put pressure on the Russian Federation  and Azerbaijan in the issue of Armenian refugees and other  humanitarian issues.

" There is absolutely nothing about Artsakh in the statement. The  Artsakh problem is trimmed from the problem of unblocking  communications and clarifying the borders between Armenia and  Azerbaijan. The Artsakh problem, like the previous decades, is dealt  with by the OSCE Minsk Group.

If we briefly summarize the statement of the President of the  European Council Charles Michel and the press conference of  Stoltenberg and Aliyev at the NATO Headquarters, it can be affirmed  that the attempt of the Russian Federation and Turkey to monopolize  the South Caucasus is failing. In addition, the attempt of the  Russian Federation to declare its special role in determining the  borders in the region also fails. The fussy attempt of the President  of the Russian Federation to declare the special rights of the  Russian Federation in Sochi in this matter are taken into account,  nothing more, " Arzumanyan is convinced.

At the same time, he points out that the attempts of the President of  Azerbaijan to treat Europea bodies as a casino where you can place  bets, play poker, an integral part of which is deception, and try to  cheat with cards have failed. The political scientist believes that  they although very politely, but made it clear to Aliyev, that there  are principles that must be observed. 

"Moreover, Russia is leaving the South Caucasus. The only instrument  that allows it to stay in the region is its military presence in  Armenia - military force. But as the leader of the world proletariat  said, you can test the situation with a bayonet, conquer a region,  but you will not be able to keep it. We need another toolkit, which  is not there, "Arzumanyan said.

According to him, the inevitability of the RF withdrawal and the  seriousness of the EU's intentions create the risk of military  destabilization of the region by the Russian-Turkish alliance. "The  alliance may well agree to overturn the board. The role of Turkey is  important here, what it chooses is to be content with what has  already been achieved or try to take the maximum, following the path  of eliminating Armenian state sovereignty," the expert added,  expressing conviction that in the light of the above-mentioned point,  the role of the Armenian Armed Forces and the Armenian people is  critical important.  In his words, it is necessary to be ready for  Sardarapat in Syunik in order to get a chance to restrain the  alliance from plans to implement a catastrophic scenario for Armenia.   "The Armenian government in this confrontation, at best, does not  exist, at worst, it is on the side of the alliance," Arzumanyan  summed up on his Facebook page.