Analyst: Talks about Turkish-Azerbaijani brotherhood are somewhat  different from reality

ArmInfo.A number of events that followed the defeat of Armenia in the 44-day war in  Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate, perhaps, an unprecedented strengthening  of the strategic link between Ankara and Baku. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, Leading Researcher at the  MGIMO Institute for International Studies, Editor-in- Chief of the  Journal of International Analytic.

"In turn, the unprecedented Turkish military-political intervention  in this war has sharply strengthened Ankara's position in the  Transcaucasus, respectively, becoming a rather decisive challenge to  the geopolitical leadership of the Russian Federation in the region.  And in this context, a number of analytical issues arise, including  the degree of flawlessness of statements about the almost complete  subordination of Baku's foreign policy to Ankara's interests, about  the reduction of Moscow's influence in the Caucasus in general and in  Azerbaijan in particular, as well as about the unambiguity of the  results of the 44-day war, "he stressed.

According to the analyst, Turkey identified its interests in  Azerbaijan from the very Sovietization of Azerbaijan and continued  the process of strengthening them with the collapse of the USSR, the  signing of the Program and Plan for Long-Term Economic Cooperation in  November 2007, fixing the importance of strategic cooperation with  Turkey in the concept of Azerbaijan's national security. And in  August 2010, an Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual  Assistance was signed.

Nevertheless, all this time, the foreign policy of Azerbaijan,  according to the analyst, retained independence in promoting its own  goals and objectives. Evidence of which, in his opinion, is the  buildup of military- political cooperation with Israel against the  background of the deterioration and freezing of relations between  Turkey and Israel. And against the backdrop of the disagreements  between Moscow and Ankara in December 2015 in Syria, Baku, not fully  sided with Ankara, but tried to play the role of a mediator.

"A key role in Azerbaijan's victory in last year's war was played by  Turkey's assistance: Bayraktar UAVs, their Turkish operators,  intelligence, military instructors. And examples of Ilham Aliyev's  gratitude to "brother Recep" include: the introduction of a visa-free  regime with Turkey, support for Ankara in its conflict with Greece  and Cyprus, the Islamabad Declaration, etc. That does not mean that  Ankara and Baku are abandoning their own priorities - all three joint  statements following the 44-day war were signed without Ankara's  participation. And the settlement format with the participation of  Russia is considered optimal and does not imply the  internationalization of the peacekeeping operation. And the opening  of transport communications should take place with the guarantees of  the border service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian  Federation, and not Turkey, "he stressed.

Against this background, over the past year, according to Markedonov,  Aliyev  has never opposed the Turkish vector to the Russian one,  publicly emphasizing in every possible way constructive relations  with Vladimir Putin, in which not all Azerbaijanis support him. Thus,  in his opinion, Aliyev defends the sovereignty of Azerbaijan even in  relations with close Turkey. And the creeping Islamization of Turkey,  with the light hand of Erdogan, causes suspicion in secular  Azerbaijan. Similarly, the analyst assesses the position of Baku on  the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).  

"It is in this that we should look for the roots of the trilateral  format on Karabakh, Azerbaijan's independent energy policy, etc.   Thus, conversations about brotherhood and friendship are somewhat  different from reality. Even after changes in the regional status quo  in 2020. I think that in the relations between Ankara and Baku in the  future everything will remain at the same level. Alliance, you know,  by no means presupposes an absolute identity of interests, assuming  only mutual coordination of benefits and minimization of  discrepancies, "Markedonov concluded.