ArmInfo.A number of events that followed the defeat of Armenia in the 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh demonstrate, perhaps, an unprecedented strengthening of the strategic link between Ankara and Baku. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei Markedonov, Leading Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for International Studies, Editor-in- Chief of the Journal of International Analytic.
"In turn, the unprecedented Turkish military-political intervention in this war has sharply strengthened Ankara's position in the Transcaucasus, respectively, becoming a rather decisive challenge to the geopolitical leadership of the Russian Federation in the region. And in this context, a number of analytical issues arise, including the degree of flawlessness of statements about the almost complete subordination of Baku's foreign policy to Ankara's interests, about the reduction of Moscow's influence in the Caucasus in general and in Azerbaijan in particular, as well as about the unambiguity of the results of the 44-day war, "he stressed.
According to the analyst, Turkey identified its interests in Azerbaijan from the very Sovietization of Azerbaijan and continued the process of strengthening them with the collapse of the USSR, the signing of the Program and Plan for Long-Term Economic Cooperation in November 2007, fixing the importance of strategic cooperation with Turkey in the concept of Azerbaijan's national security. And in August 2010, an Agreement on Strategic Partnership and Mutual Assistance was signed.
Nevertheless, all this time, the foreign policy of Azerbaijan, according to the analyst, retained independence in promoting its own goals and objectives. Evidence of which, in his opinion, is the buildup of military- political cooperation with Israel against the background of the deterioration and freezing of relations between Turkey and Israel. And against the backdrop of the disagreements between Moscow and Ankara in December 2015 in Syria, Baku, not fully sided with Ankara, but tried to play the role of a mediator.
"A key role in Azerbaijan's victory in last year's war was played by Turkey's assistance: Bayraktar UAVs, their Turkish operators, intelligence, military instructors. And examples of Ilham Aliyev's gratitude to "brother Recep" include: the introduction of a visa-free regime with Turkey, support for Ankara in its conflict with Greece and Cyprus, the Islamabad Declaration, etc. That does not mean that Ankara and Baku are abandoning their own priorities - all three joint statements following the 44-day war were signed without Ankara's participation. And the settlement format with the participation of Russia is considered optimal and does not imply the internationalization of the peacekeeping operation. And the opening of transport communications should take place with the guarantees of the border service of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation, and not Turkey, "he stressed.
Against this background, over the past year, according to Markedonov, Aliyev has never opposed the Turkish vector to the Russian one, publicly emphasizing in every possible way constructive relations with Vladimir Putin, in which not all Azerbaijanis support him. Thus, in his opinion, Aliyev defends the sovereignty of Azerbaijan even in relations with close Turkey. And the creeping Islamization of Turkey, with the light hand of Erdogan, causes suspicion in secular Azerbaijan. Similarly, the analyst assesses the position of Baku on the recognition of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC).
"It is in this that we should look for the roots of the trilateral format on Karabakh, Azerbaijan's independent energy policy, etc. Thus, conversations about brotherhood and friendship are somewhat different from reality. Even after changes in the regional status quo in 2020. I think that in the relations between Ankara and Baku in the future everything will remain at the same level. Alliance, you know, by no means presupposes an absolute identity of interests, assuming only mutual coordination of benefits and minimization of discrepancies, "Markedonov concluded.