ArmInfo.Against the background of the lack of a special desire in the collective West to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I believe that the Pashinyan- Aliyev meeting scheduled for December 15 on the sidelines of the Eastern Partnership will end in futile discussions. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Alexander Skakov, Deputy Director of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
"Against this background, in the trilateral settlement format with the participation of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, there has been a rather slow, but still progress over the past year, which is quite predictable, since there was no reason to expect a quick breakthrough from the outset. And before talking about a peace agreement I think it is necessary to start with the delimitation of the border with its subsequent demarcation and unblocking of communications. But I think it was impossible to resolve these issues in a year, especially in the conditions of the many years of armed conflict and the transcendent level of mutual distrust between Armenia and Azerbaijan. But today the process has not only shifted off the ground, but also got an acceleration thanks to the intermediary role of the Russian Federation, "he said.
According to Skakov, Moscow today has a steady interest in the earliest possible advancement of the conflict settlement, which will significantly strengthen its regional positions. In his opinion, in which, for obvious reasons, the West is not interested. According to the forecasts of the Russian expert, the latter leaves the West the opportunity to feed revanchist sentiments in a part of the Armenian society, including with the help of the Armenian Diaspora. Thus, according to Skakov, the lack of a settlement to the conflict allows the West to manipulate Armenia. In any case, the Russian expert is convinced that, according to the Sochi statement, the process of delimiting and unblocking communication between Armenia and Azerbaijan will progress in the coming years. And despite the possible slowdown in the implementation of the Sochi agreements, one way or another, the obligations at the level of the three heads of state leave no doubt, at least that the Commission on Border Delimitation will begin its work.
"The same applies to the prospects of the transport corridor. Here I also want to emphasize that only Russia can guarantee the safe movement of people and goods along it. In my opinion, progress on these two issues in general comes from the interests of Armenia - this will contribute to a common stabilization of the situation in the region.
As for the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, this is clearly a question that cannot be resolved today or tomorrow. First, it is necessary to resolve issues related to borders and transport corridors, then sign a peace treaty and only then try to determine the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, its population, the security of which must be guaranteed and ensured. The scenario according to which Nagorno-Karabakh can exist without Armenians can hardly be acceptable. According to the position of the Russian Federation, the Karabakh conflict has not been resolved, and its resolution requires efforts and a willingness to compromise on all sides, "Skakov summed up.