Forecast: Meeting in Brussels will end in futile discussions

ArmInfo.Against the background of the lack of a special desire in the collective West to resolve the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, I believe that the  Pashinyan- Aliyev meeting scheduled for December 15 on the sidelines  of the Eastern Partnership will end in futile discussions. A similar  opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Alexander Skakov, Deputy Director  of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of  Sciences.

"Against this background, in the trilateral settlement format with  the participation of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, there has been a  rather slow, but still progress over the past year, which is quite  predictable, since there was no reason to expect a quick breakthrough  from the outset. And before talking about a peace agreement I think  it is necessary to start with the delimitation of the border with its  subsequent demarcation and unblocking of communications. But I think  it was impossible to resolve these issues in a year, especially in  the conditions of the many years of armed conflict and the  transcendent level of mutual distrust between Armenia and Azerbaijan.  But today the process has not only shifted off the ground, but also  got an acceleration thanks to the intermediary role of the Russian  Federation, "he said.

According to Skakov, Moscow today has a steady interest in the  earliest possible advancement of the conflict settlement, which will  significantly strengthen its regional positions. In his opinion, in  which, for obvious reasons, the West is not interested. According to  the forecasts of the Russian expert, the latter leaves the West the  opportunity to feed revanchist sentiments in a part of the Armenian  society, including with the help of the Armenian Diaspora. Thus,  according to Skakov, the lack of a settlement to the conflict allows  the West to manipulate Armenia. In any case, the Russian expert is  convinced that, according to the Sochi statement, the process of  delimiting and unblocking communication between Armenia and  Azerbaijan will progress in the coming years. And despite the  possible slowdown in the implementation of the Sochi agreements, one  way or another, the obligations at the level of the three heads of  state leave no doubt, at least that the Commission on Border  Delimitation will begin its work.

"The same applies to the prospects of the transport corridor. Here I  also want to emphasize that only Russia can guarantee the safe  movement of people and goods along it. In my opinion, progress on  these two issues in general comes from the interests of Armenia -  this will contribute to a common stabilization of the situation in  the region.

As for the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh itself, this is clearly a  question that cannot be resolved today or tomorrow. First, it is  necessary to resolve issues related to borders and transport  corridors, then sign a peace treaty and only then try to determine  the status of Nagorno-Karabakh, its population, the security of which  must be guaranteed and ensured. The scenario according to which  Nagorno-Karabakh can exist without Armenians can hardly be  acceptable. According to the position of the Russian Federation, the  Karabakh conflict has not been resolved, and its resolution requires  efforts and a willingness to compromise on all sides, "Skakov summed  up.