ArmInfo.The trilateral statement in Sochi is first of all a reflection of Russia`s intention to guide the process toward the unblocking of regional trunk lines. Moscow is vitally interested in ensuring communication with Turkey, its own strategic presence in the region, unobstructed movement of its military personnel, its own control of the regional communication, analyst Saro Saroyan told ArmInfo.
"Thus, the Sochi meeting proved to be one more step toward maintaining the balance of forces in the region established after the 44-day war. It concerns both the Artsakh problems and all the other impulses in the Yerevan-Baku relations - especially in the context of the Pashinyan-Aliyev meeting to take place in Brussels on December 15, which has a potential to cause the regional process follow an entirely different path. And it was the Sochi meeting that ruined the prospects," he said.
This scenario is quite predictable. Moreover, it enables Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to refer to the Sochi agreements in arguing for making the situation follow the course decided by Moscow. The West`s task is to try to introduce new elements into the process, which would bring it out of the framework of the Russian-Turkish agreements and make it serve the West`s interests. As to how well it will work in Brussels, Mr Sarosyan finds it difficult to forecast.
In this context, he believes Moscow and Ankara reached a tacit agreement on relegating the Nagono- Karabakh peace process, status of Artsakh, to the background in the context of regional processes. Mr Saroyan is sure that this fate for Artsakh was initially an integral part of the "Lavrov plan." As regards the border demarcation process, the analyst stressed that Armenia will bear the greater burden of the process, as Yerevan has been convinced that it is only border delimitation that can out an end to Baku`s aggressive behavior. Thus, Moscow, he believes, is simultaneously responding to Yerevan`s complaints and showing its desire to protect its ally. However, it is, in fact, part of the plan agreed on with Ankara and Baku long ago.