ArmInfo.Failing to get a "peace treaty" from Armenia, in the sense in which it is imagined by Baku, Azerbaijan is quite capable of starting a large-scale war against Armenia. Arkady Dubnov, a Russian expert on the CIS countries, expressed this to ArmInfo.
"The cessation of hostilities achieved yesterday with the mediation of the Russian Defense Minister on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan does not mean at all that the conflict is completely settled. In my opinion, if Baku fails to achieve substantial concessions from Yerevan on issues important for it through pressure, another escalation on the border may develop into a new full-scale war, following the example of the 44-day one, "he forecasts.
After shelling the positions of the Armenian Armed Forces in the eastern direction, Azerbaijan on November 14 launched another round of escalation in the conflict with Armenia. On November 16, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces attacked Armenian positions with artillery, armored vehicles and small arms in the same direction, infiltrating the territory of Armenia. As a result of local battles, both sides have losses. The clashes ended at 6:30pm, according to the agreement reached with the mediation of the Russian side.
According to the expert, by initiating hostilities on the border with Armenia, Aliyev is trying to put pressure on the Prime Minister of Armenia in order to force Nikol Pashinyan to eventually sign a "peace treaty", according to which, as it seems to Baku, part of the territory of Armenia will come under control Azerbaijan and, of course, they will gain control over the so-called Zangezur corridor. "The shooting stopped after Yerevan was forced to turn to the Russian Minister of Defense and the President for help. And it was Moscow's response that largely contributed to its termination. I think that Baku was clearly explained the need to stop hostilities, as well as the inadmissibility of invading the territory of Armenia. And the fact of losses of the Armenian side, (the dead solider and prisoners of war), in my opinion, testifies precisely to the invasion of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces into the territory of Armenia, "the expert summed up.