West-orchestrated struggle round Artsakh status could change many  facts of life, expert  

ArmInfo.The West-orchestrated geopolitical struggle round the status of Nagorno-Karabakh could well turn into acrimonious struggle capable of changing numerous facts of real life, the orientalist Alexey Malashenko, Head of the Dialogue of  Civilizations research center, told ArmInfo. 

"At the present stage, all the actors in the South Caucasus have  their own plans. The regional nations are playing their game, the  West is playing its own. We can now speak of most serious  geopolitical and other resources being directed to the South  Caucasus, which allows various scenarios of regional developments to  be discussed. Not forecasts can now be made about which one will  prove the winner," the expert said.  Moscow's latest steps,  particularly the Russian foreign office's statements on the  Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be considered in the context of  latest geopolitical processes, shifts and transformations.  Amid the  unstable former cooperation and relations formats, their transitional  state, Moscow's relations with Yerevan and Baku are, according to the  expert, are undergoing essential influence, first of all due  Azerbaijan's close - and not always coordinated with Moscow -  cooperation with Turkey.  In general, Russia and Turkey are similar  in their seeking to defend their national interests. However, in need  of and interested in each other, both the states are ready for  partnership anywhere, including the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict.  "It is clear they are not all friends nor will they ever be in  contrast to long- term partnership, which will continue for yet a  very long period. It is clear the situation will be aggravated time  and again, and numerous occasions can be found for that. But mutual  interest will for a while balance all that out," Malashenko said.

He stressed that Russian-Turkish relations are dependent on the  global situation and on the Russia-West relations. In this context he  noted that at their current stage the Turkey-West relations are  predisposed to cooperation with Russia. The situation-dependent  Russian-Turkish cooperation is protracting, but no fundamental  reasons are yet available for the parties to severe their ties, as it  is to disadvantage of both of them. Russia and Turkey have much more  in common than it seems at first sight, the expert said, and singled  out the psychological aspect - regular utopian talks about  re-emergence of the Ottoman Empire and the USSR. 

"It is clear that, Erdogan, cashing in on the disagreements between  Russia and the West and within the Muslin world itself, is seeking to  ensure Turkey's return as a world powers. And he has made some  political progress, and we can see it in Syria, Lybia and Azerbaijan.  However, economically, Turkey is a rather weak state now, evidence  thereof is steadily progressing inflation," he said.  Elaborating on  Russia's problems in the South Caucasus, the expert singled out the  still unrecognized Russian peacekeeping troops in Nagorno-Karabakh,  controlled regional tension and regional interests of the U.S., EU,  Iran and even Georgia, as well as long-term prospects of tension  between Armenia and one party and Turkey and Azerbaijan and the other  party. Meanwhile, time allows the U.S., France, Iran and Georgia  occupy the positions, which was impossible to do during last year's  war. And Russia just cannot reject regional cooperation with them,  Malashenko said.