ArmInfo.The West-orchestrated geopolitical struggle round the status of Nagorno-Karabakh could well turn into acrimonious struggle capable of changing numerous facts of real life, the orientalist Alexey Malashenko, Head of the Dialogue of Civilizations research center, told ArmInfo.
"At the present stage, all the actors in the South Caucasus have their own plans. The regional nations are playing their game, the West is playing its own. We can now speak of most serious geopolitical and other resources being directed to the South Caucasus, which allows various scenarios of regional developments to be discussed. Not forecasts can now be made about which one will prove the winner," the expert said. Moscow's latest steps, particularly the Russian foreign office's statements on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict should be considered in the context of latest geopolitical processes, shifts and transformations. Amid the unstable former cooperation and relations formats, their transitional state, Moscow's relations with Yerevan and Baku are, according to the expert, are undergoing essential influence, first of all due Azerbaijan's close - and not always coordinated with Moscow - cooperation with Turkey. In general, Russia and Turkey are similar in their seeking to defend their national interests. However, in need of and interested in each other, both the states are ready for partnership anywhere, including the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict. "It is clear they are not all friends nor will they ever be in contrast to long- term partnership, which will continue for yet a very long period. It is clear the situation will be aggravated time and again, and numerous occasions can be found for that. But mutual interest will for a while balance all that out," Malashenko said.
He stressed that Russian-Turkish relations are dependent on the global situation and on the Russia-West relations. In this context he noted that at their current stage the Turkey-West relations are predisposed to cooperation with Russia. The situation-dependent Russian-Turkish cooperation is protracting, but no fundamental reasons are yet available for the parties to severe their ties, as it is to disadvantage of both of them. Russia and Turkey have much more in common than it seems at first sight, the expert said, and singled out the psychological aspect - regular utopian talks about re-emergence of the Ottoman Empire and the USSR.
"It is clear that, Erdogan, cashing in on the disagreements between Russia and the West and within the Muslin world itself, is seeking to ensure Turkey's return as a world powers. And he has made some political progress, and we can see it in Syria, Lybia and Azerbaijan. However, economically, Turkey is a rather weak state now, evidence thereof is steadily progressing inflation," he said. Elaborating on Russia's problems in the South Caucasus, the expert singled out the still unrecognized Russian peacekeeping troops in Nagorno-Karabakh, controlled regional tension and regional interests of the U.S., EU, Iran and even Georgia, as well as long-term prospects of tension between Armenia and one party and Turkey and Azerbaijan and the other party. Meanwhile, time allows the U.S., France, Iran and Georgia occupy the positions, which was impossible to do during last year's war. And Russia just cannot reject regional cooperation with them, Malashenko said.