Forecast: Any spark on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, in Georgia or  Iran could trigger a war

ArmInfo. Against the background of the violation of the balance of power established in 1994 in the region, the fact that the South Caucasus is just entering  a period of serious geopolitical breakdown and reformatting, any  spark on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, in Georgia or Iran can serve  as a trigger for the resumption of hostilities. Former Foreign  Minister of Artsakh, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary  Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Today I do not see any special prerequisites in favor of preserving  the current, rather fragile peace. Taking into account the   "gentlemanly" nature of the tripartite declaration of November 9,  2020 on a ceasefire, the war cannot be considered over. Another  problem is that the violation of the agreements of the parties on  November 9, most likely, will not be able in any way to be qualified  by international law. Accordingly, the initiator of a new military  aggression, the resumption of hostilities, will not face anything,"  he forecasted.

In the diplomat's opinion, in this light, Yerevan needs to calculate  all its steps in advance, starting from what is happening around  Armenia in any actions in the international arena. In this context,  he highlighted the critical importance of keeping Armenia from being  drawn into various geopolitical adventures in order to avoid the  prospect of being drawn into conflicts that have nothing to do with  the country in interests alien to Armenia.

Commenting on the current geopolitical situation around Armenia,  Melikyan noted that with the signing of the trilateral statement of  November 9, Yerevan's positions only worsened, since after the  signing of the statement dozens of servicemen of the RA Armed Forces  were captured by Azerbaijan, some territories of the RA were  occupied, as well as the killings of servicemen and civilians on the  border with Azerbaijan continues under the ceasefire situation.

"It is important to emphasize that no one bears responsibility for  all this. And the Armenian authorities and the opposition only blame  each other for what is happening, thus trying to consolidate around  them the society that has fallen into apathy. It is even more  important to state that neither one nor the other has a tangible and  visible plan for a way out of the current disappointing situation.  Against this background, they prefer to make efforts not in the  direction of the formation of this very plan, which is necessary for  the preservation of statehood, but in the direction of the same  struggle for power. Needless to say, such actions of the country's  political elite represent an absolutely dead-end, disastrous path for  Armenia," the diplomat concluded.