ArmInfo.On November 3-4, Erika Olson, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs at the U.S. Department of State, by all appearances, bought the new ideas of the U.S. policy in the South Caucasus.
The goal of her visit was to be informed of Armenia's stance on the concepts in particular, and of the frames of the U.S. further cooperation with Armenia in general, independent analyst Hovsep Khurshudyan said in an interview with ArmInfo. "I must says that it is not a question of Ms Olson's visit alone. A most important discussions on the U.S. role in resolving the Black Sea region problems by the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, putting forward the 1+6 format - the U.S., Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria - for the region are striking evidence that the intensified U.S. policy in the region. The involvement of Georgia and Turkey in a different format will make it much easier for Armenia to reject the 3+3 format," the expert believes.
According to Khurshudyan, Yerevan, well aware of the threats posed by the 3+3 format, continues opposing the idea if not by overtly rejecting it, at least by conditioning its involvement in the 3+3 implementation on concessions on the part of Baku and Ankara. In this context, the U.S. 1+6 initiative is an effective step to level the 3+3. The expert believes that in Armenia's case the question is the authorities' ability to pursue a policy that would make the prospects of implementation of this format to Armenia's advantage as well.
In this context, the expert regards the present trilateral format, Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan, as posing serious risks. Despite the positive aspects of border delimitation and demarcation, by participating in this format Armenia itself will hand to Russia one lever for manipulating [Armenia].
"It is clear that by 'correcting' the border this way or that, the Kremlin will get what it wants both from Yerevan and from Baku. However, considering Baku's great financial potential and other possibilities, as well as corruption experience, the mediator's liking difficult to guess. And no matter whether Russia's liking will be bought for money or by ensuring its geopolitical interests. On the other hand, this disturbing scenario could, in Armenia's context, be ruled out if the right to such a mission be granted to the OSCE based on practice within the international law," the expert said.