U.S. brings new ideas of its policy in South Caucasus

ArmInfo.On November 3-4, Erika Olson, Deputy Assistant Secretary in the Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs at the U.S.  Department of State, by all  appearances, bought the new ideas of the U.S. policy in the South  Caucasus.

The goal of her visit was to be informed of Armenia's  stance on the concepts in particular, and of the frames of the U.S.  further cooperation with Armenia in general, independent analyst  Hovsep Khurshudyan said in an interview with ArmInfo.  "I must says  that it is not a question of Ms Olson's visit alone. A most important  discussions on the U.S. role in resolving the Black Sea region  problems by the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations,  putting forward the 1+6 format - the U.S., Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova,  Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria - for the region are striking evidence  that the intensified U.S. policy in the region. The involvement of  Georgia and Turkey in a different format will make it much easier for  Armenia to reject the 3+3 format," the expert believes.

According to Khurshudyan, Yerevan, well aware of the threats posed by  the 3+3 format, continues opposing the idea if not by overtly  rejecting it, at least by conditioning its involvement in the 3+3  implementation on concessions on the part of Baku and Ankara.  In  this context, the U.S. 1+6 initiative is an effective step to level  the 3+3. The expert believes that in Armenia's case the question is  the authorities' ability to pursue a policy that would make the  prospects of implementation of this format to Armenia's advantage as  well. 

In this context, the expert regards the present trilateral format,  Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan, as posing serious risks. Despite the  positive aspects of border delimitation and demarcation, by  participating in this format Armenia itself will hand to Russia one  lever for manipulating [Armenia]. 

"It is clear that by 'correcting' the border this way or that, the  Kremlin will get what it wants both from Yerevan and from Baku.  However, considering Baku's great financial potential and other  possibilities, as well as corruption experience, the mediator's  liking difficult to guess. And no matter whether Russia's liking will  be bought for money or by ensuring its geopolitical interests. On the  other hand, this disturbing scenario could, in Armenia's context, be  ruled out if the right to such a mission be granted to the OSCE based  on practice within the international law," the expert said.