ArmInfo.Professor of the Georgian Technical University, Doctor of International Relations, Conflictologist Amiran Khevtsuriani, in an interview with ArmInfo, comments on the latest internal political impulses in Georgia. He forecasts the prospects of the "3 + 3" format, Georgia's participation in the communication projects promoted by Russia as well as shares his vision of the future of Armenia and Georgia.
- I can't help but start our interview with the internal political problems of Georgia. In particular, perhaps with the main trigger that determines the internal political impulses in your country - Mikhail Saakashvili. The question, which may seem strange - how would you assess Saakashvili's chances for the premiership in Georgia?
- Let's start with the fact that Mikheil Saakashvili once again showed everyone that he is very creative and is still in good political shape, as evidenced by his recent master class. Can you imagine that the former president, who in recent years has been considered the main fugitive of the country, announces his return and mentioned a specific date and enters the country in a truck? Then he travels around the country for three or four days, shoots videos and publishes, while the leaders of the ruling parties insist that Saakashvili did not leave the territory of Ukraine and is resting at the Truskavets resort. A few hours after this statement, he was detained by the police in Tbilisi. If this story hadn't happened in my country, I probably wouldn't have believed in it for a long time, because it reminds me of a comedy genre. Saakashvili is undoubtedly a source of great concern for the government. Today the country lives according to the agenda set by Saakashvili. Regarding your question, how high are the chances that he will become prime minister, I would say that such chances, of course, exist, although I am not sure that he needs it himself. I do not exclude that he will step aside and give up the main post of the country to someone else, which he has repeatedly hinted at. Moreover, he has a very good career in Ukraine, high reputation and personal rating. I follow these processes directly in Ukraine itself, where I often visit and conduct active scientific activities. To date, he managed to unite around himself even his former sworn enemies, who categorically demand from the authorities his immediate release. Moreover, they urge Saakashvili to end the hunger strike in the interests of the country. Of course, I also think in the same way, but I cannot ask for it, because in his place I would have done the same.
- The opposition considers the results of all recent elections in Georgia to be rigged, which is the reason for the internal political crisis in the country. These assessments are shared by some of our foreign colleagues. Does "Georgian Dream" falsify the results of the elections, and if so, how does it threaten Georgia? - It is a fact that the last elections received the toughest assessments both within the country and abroad. According to authoritative observers, there were serious violations. Such as "carousels", bribery, intimidation of voters, the use of administrative resources and others. It is clear that such a reality contributes to the detonation of the acute political crisis that is already taking place in the country. The opposition has shown that it has sufficient resources to bring a large mass of people to the rally, and the authorities seem to be afraid of this, since they have long ceased to react to diplomatic reactions. Of course, the current situation in the country carries great risks for the Georgian statehood itself. Not so long ago, in the 1990s, we experienced a difficult civil conflict, which led to both the institutional collapse of the country and its disintegration. Naturally, then these processes were of local importance without the intervention of external forces. Unfortunately, even today I see signs of such processes, since society is extremely polarized and divided into two parts.
- Bidzina Ivanishvili's retreat from politics, that was unexpected for many people, the resignation of the previous Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia - is it the result of internal or external political processes? To put it bluntly, did external pressure on Tbilisi play a role in all this in the form of a proposal to become part of a project to unblock, I should stress, all regional communications in the South Caucasus?
- In the case of Ivanishvili, of course, this is due to an external factor, and in the case of Gakharia, of course, with an internal one. Bidzina Ivanishvili's retreat from politics has become less and less believable both in Georgia and abroad. Especially after the second appointment of Irakli Garibashvili to the post of prime minister. And he is still considered the shadow ruler of the country. For me personally, Ivanishvili's next self-removal from politics did not come as a surprise, since it is clear that he feels rather comfortable in the "shadow". Moreover, by such a decision, he somehow avoids direct pressure from the West, putting his own team, which all this time was actually parasitizing on its political and financial resources, before the fact. But Ivanishvili has one serious failure: he never managed to form a strong and effective political team that could withstand the challenges facing the country, as well as establish a personal comfort zone for him. As for the Giorgi Gakharia, he is undoubtedly a victim of internal intrigue in the ruling team, which even he himself admitted to. I have never had a great opinion of Mr. Gakharia, as I do not remember a single successful project that he implemented during his tenure. And if we add to this the events of June 20, 2019, when he held the post of Minister of Internal Affairs, it will be difficult for me to mention him in a positive context.
- The Georgian leadership actually announced the impossibility of its own participation in the 3 + 3 format promoted by Turkey and, according to some sources, Russia. What, in your opinion, are the reasons for this refusal?
- I completely agree with our government and support it in this matter. However, the recent statement by our Foreign Minister, Mr. Zalkaliani, on this issue, which he made in response to the statement made by Sergei Lavrov during a meeting with his Iranian counterpart, simply does not stand up to scrutiny. Zalkaliani could have left Lavrov's statement unanswered at all. Moreover, ignoring Lavrov's statement personally for me would be more acceptable than a comment. Sometimes silence is more useful than words, I think this is exactly the case. Of course, no <3 + 3> format will work at this stage, since the multifaceted and diverse conflict environment in the region does not create the necessary political climate for this. We are well aware of the time and circumstances in which this idea arose, then it had a specific purpose and meaning. And today this format is completely lifeless and useless. We do not talk with the Russians and this will continue until they return our lands, you still have a conflict with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and Iran has problems with Azerbaijan, and vice versa. What kind of cooperation can we generally talk about here?
- According to your forecasts, is it possible that Tbilisi's refusal to open communications through Abkhazia become the reason for Georgia's isolation from the communication projects promoted by Moscow with the participation of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey? And in general, how promising is the implementation of the "Russian plan" in the South Caucasus?
- Georgia will never open this section of the road until the restoration of Georgian jurisdiction in Abkhazia, and this is an axiom. I understand that this issue is important for Armenia, but Georgia cannot harm its own national interests. We are dealing with a completely different configuration. Of course, unblocking communications is the most important criterion for the development of regional stability, but it should be carefully done, it should not be expansionary. Let me remind you of one episode that I touched upon in January 2020 during a meeting with colleagues in Yerevan. I then spoke a lot about the importance of unblocking communications from the point of view of de-escalating the situation. If even then the parties agreed to unblock the same communications, which are being discussed today in such an aggressive tone that is written in the same document of November 9, 2020, then perhaps we would have a completely different reality in the region today. What would happen if, for example, Pashinyan openly offered Aliyev to open the road to Nakhichevan, and in return Aliyev stopped his aggressive rhetoric against Armenia? Wouldn't that help to de-escalate the situation and restore confidence between the parties? If so, then it can be assumed that the war could have been avoided. As for the main point of the question, in raising such questions we must be guided by strategic interests. The South Caucasus region is less important for Russia economically than militarily-strategically. Our region is small, with a population of up to 17 million, which makes it irrelevant as a global sales market. Therefore, the implementation of large infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus has never been a priority for Russia. From an economic point of view, it is in Russia's interests to use only the transit potential of the region and the development of the so-called "North-South" transport corridor. It is in this sense that the factor of Azerbaijan is important for Moscow, relations with which in recent years have become increasingly important, bypassing the strategic military-political alliance with Armenia. - The economic situation in Armenia and Georgia, due to a number of circumstances, remains rather difficult. What common corners of political and economic cooperation for our countries do you see? Do Georgia and Armenia have any opportunities today to maneuver to the West, in particular in the direction of the EU, against the background of the ongoing attempts by the Russian Federation and Turkey to finally monopolize our region?
- I see nothing new and strange in the striving of Russia and Turkey to monopolize the South Caucasus. I would rather be surprised by the lack of such a desire. But the source of our problems is not only in external factors, but also in us. We failed to unite around one idea and one goal, especially against the background of our own difficult historical experience. Exactly 100 years ago, the common misfortunes of the South Caucasus stemmed precisely from the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which ultimately ended with the occupation of our region. No mistakes are allowed in geopolitics, it works according to the play off principle - loss means leaving the game without the possibility of a second chance. Thus, the chance that we all missed at the beginning of the last century, we got only at the end of the same century. And if we lose it now, then it will probably take us another 100 years or more to get it back. As for the future of Armenian-Georgian relations, I always thought that that we are the closest peoples with almost identical historical past. Accordingly, our potential for political, economic and cultural cooperation is simply limitless. First of all, it is necessary to normalize relations between your country and Azerbaijan, because without this it is impossible to achieve peace in the South Caucasus. Ending the conflict between you is the key to peace in the region, and only then can Georgia's problems be resolved. And, of course, the future of Armenia, as well as Georgia, is connected only with the West. We are not nations willing to endure slavery, we have a strong immunity to survival, and we must make the most of this advantage.