Political scientist: The question is not when and where Pashinyan and  Aliyev will meet, but what resources Armenia has

ArmInfo. The question is not at all when and where Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev will meet, but what resources Armenia has to defend its own interests and positions  at this meeting. Director of the Caucasus Institute Alexander  Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

Since mid-October, conflicting reports have been spreading in Armenia  about the upcoming meeting of the leaders of Armenia, Russia and  Azerbaijan in Moscow on November 9.  Some media outlets, referring to  a "reliable diplomatic source", report that the two documents to be  signed by Pashinyan and Aliyev through Putin's mediation are in fact  final, and they will not be signed only in case of force majeure.  As  the first document, Yerevan and Baku allegedly recognize the borders  between Armenia and Azerbaijan and mutual territorial integrity  according to the maps of the General Staff of the USSR Ministry of  Defense of the 1920s. The second document will fix the unblocking of  communications, including the connection between Azerbaijan and  Nakhichevan. Foreign Ministries of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the  Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation have already  refuted this information.

"Meanwhile, after the defeat of Armenia in the 44-day war, the  resources for defending its own interests and position are extremely  scarce. The change in the border line, the state of the army is only  part of the changes reflecting the breakdown of the regional status  quo from 1994. Accordingly, the success or failure of Armenia in the  upcoming negotiations with Azerbaijan depends very little on the  professionalism and competence of the negotiators. First of all, it  depends on who will be behind the backs of these negotiators.  In  such a situation, the Armenian leadership is rather trying not to  bring benefit, but to minimize harm, "he stressed.

Against this background, Iskandaryan assesses the claims of the  opposition, linking the current state of Armenia with the personal  guilt of the government and negotiators, as unground. According to  him, the situation is primarily due to Armenia's lack of resources to  advance its own agenda and Azerbaijan's fulfillment of its  conditions. And the losses from not very skillful management of the  state, in his opinion, are secondary against this background.

This state of affairs, according to his estimates, leads to a  situation in which even the problems on the new borders of Armenia  and Azerbaijan are regulated with the help of Russia. And no other  format for resolving these problems in the new situation, he said,  does not even exist formally, which is expressed by the fact that the  same OSCE Minsk Group is engaged in the settlement of the Karabakh  conflict, and not the organization of borders between Armenia and  Azerbaijan. However, even here Yerevan, according to Iskandaryan, has  a problem, which is reflected in the fact that its interests do not  coincide with Moscow's interests. Meanwhile, Baku has no similar  problems with Ankara, at least in terms of the settlement of  relations with Yerevan.  

"In this light, it is impossible to imagine that Russia will defend  Armenia's interests to the detriment of its own, while we continue to  delegate powers to Moscow to protect our borders.. And Yerevan is  guided, in my opinion, by a false idea, respectively, by the tactics  of the goal of maintaining stability and security.  Having given  something today, you must be ready that tomorrow something else will  be demanded of you.  Accordingly, the way out of the situation is  exactly the opposite - Armenia needs to increase resources,  subjectivity. This is a long, difficult process, but there is no  alternative way. It is wrong to rely exclusively on Russia in  everything, as well as on any other country, "Iskandaryan summed up.