Wednesday, November 3 2021 14:02

ArmInfo.The loss, defeat of Armenia in the 44-day war for Nagorno-Karabakh that took place exactly one year ago did not bring any particular benefit to  Azerbaijan.  Senior Research Fellow, Head of the CIS Institute  Department of Eurasian Integration and SCO Development Vladimir  Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Without a doubt, the second Karabakh war led to a change in the  balance of power in the region. In particular, a significant  weakening of Armenia, which is accompanied by increased force  pressure on Yerevan from Baku. Turkey's position has strengthened,  especially in the Nakhichevan Autonomous Republic. At the same time,  in the war in 2020, Azerbaijan suffered great losses, because its  victory does not look like a significant benefit in the eyes of the  country's population, which has already become a problem for the  authorities, "he stressed.

According to the expert, in particular, the results of last year's  war have become a serious problem for the propaganda carried out in  Azerbaijan over the past two decades. So, despite the many years of  assurances from the country's authorities that the disputed  territories will be populated almost immediately after liberation, so  far only the military presence is increasing on them, and not only  Azerbaijani. According to Evseev, the matter concerns the presence of  up to 2 thousand Syrian militants on the territory of Nagorno-  Karabakh awaiting the arrival of their families.

According to his forecasts, Russian peacekeepers will remain in  Karabakh as long as the Armenian population is present there in order  to guarantee that it will not be deported. At the same time, taking  into account the provocation of a military conflict by Baku, Evseev  absolutely does not exclude its resumption - the problem of  Nagorno-Karabakh has not yet been resolved. At the same time, in his  opinion, a change in the situation in the future and the restoration  of the Armenian Armed Forces may well lead to attempts to transfer  the conflict into an armed phase from the side of Yerevan.

"If the leadership of France and the United States shows consistency,  the OSCE Minsk Group may well return to its functions in full, while  Russia feels quite confident and comfortable in the existing  trilateral format of work with Armenia and Azerbaijan.  In  particular, the success in the work of the MG is conditioned by the  topics on which the negotiations will be held with the mediation of  the co-chairs. We see that Baku considers the conflict over and  expects the results of last year's war to be legally confirmed, while  Yerevan continues to raise the issue of the status of Karabakh, in  what it gets the support of Paris and Washington. Everyone is trying  to comply with their own interests in the current situation, and at  this stage the negotiations are still fruitless, "the military expert  summed up.