Arminfo.info


 Wednesday, November 3 2021 14:00
David Stepanyan

Analyst: Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is interested in breaking off  relations with Russia

Analyst: Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is interested in breaking off  relations with Russia

ArmInfo.It seems obvious that no West, either individually or collectively, will save Armenia.  Moreover, it will not give Armenia more than what Russia currently  gives.  A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei  Markedonov, Leading Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for  International Studies, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of  International Analytics.

"I think that it is quite appropriate here to recall the repeated  pro-Armenian statements made by French President Macron both during  and after the 44-day war in Karabakh. It should be realized that  Macron will not bear real responsibility for these statements, first  of all, due to the fact that the Karabakh problem is actually  perceived by Paris in a completely different context, part of which  are rather serious disagreements between France and Turkey over the  Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Cyprus and the Mediterranean region as  a whole, "he said.

In Markedonov's opinion, of course, Karabakh is being used by Macron  as a bargaining chip in the pre- election struggle against the  eternal rival Marine Le Pen, so that the latter will not be able to  recall the "Turkish-Islamic attack on France." And given the presence  of a half-million Armenian Diaspora in France, in Markedonov's  opinion Macron also demonstrates a desire to protect Christian  brothers. However, in reality, according to the analyst, Macron's  statements are rather declarations for internal use and as an  argument in an external game with Turkey than a real policy of France  in the Caucasus.  

According to him, in the case of Azerbaijan the West is clearly not  an object of heightened sympathy of the country's leadership. In the  case of the integration prospects of Azerbaijan with Turkey, there  are many risks. Especially considering the extravagant temperament of  President Erdogan. In general, the scale of military operations in  Karabakh and the rather quick victory of Azerbaijan, the speed of  breaking the 26- year status quo, according to Markedonov, came as a  real surprise. Although, analyzing the statements of Heydar and Ilham  Aliyev, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan has never concealed its  intentions.

And nevertheless, having stopped some problems, the victory of  Azerbaijan, in his opinion, actualized or created other problems. In  particular, after it became clear that, having strengthened its  position in the South Caucasus, Turkey is not at all averse to  drawing Azerbaijan into the game on the Pakistani-Afghani direction.   This has already found its expression in two declarations signed in  Islamabad and Baku. At the same time, Azerbaijan, according to  Markedonov, does not at all seek to recognize the same Northern  Cyprus. And being a secular state, it looks with apprehension at the  Islamizing Turkey.

"It is clear that Russia for Azerbaijan in this light is a  counterbalance to Turkey. However, the policy of maneuvering does not  at all prevent the representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the  diplomatic corps of this country from carefully but periodically  reminding about the temporary nature of the deployment of Russian  peacekeepers in Karabakh. The contingent in Karabakh will stay for  five years, which was not in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which  significantly complicates Moscow's task. This raises the question of  the appropriateness of a deep settlement of the conflict. But if  Russia does not raise the issue, it will be raised by someone else.   "Moreover, with a completely different content, which is not  completely acceptable for Moscow," he said.

According to the analyst's observations, a certain reformatting of  the conflict is already taking place. In particular, the issue of  border demarcation and delimitation came to the fore, which gave  literally every piece of land of fundamental importance. Based on the  rationalism, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan, in his opinion, try to  worsen relations with Russia, especially, t does not make sense to  break them. At the same time, he noted that politics is not always  based on rationalism, and in the Karabakh issue, emotions, especially  from Baku, are frequent.

"Here, I think, it is appropriate to emphasize the existence of a  difference between Azerbaijan's struggle for the maximalist level and  the status of the very core of Karabakh. Accordingly, according to my  forecasts, in the future of the relations of the Moscow-Yerevan-Baku  triangle, much will now depend on the issue of peacekeepers. As well  as advancing the process of demarcation and delimitation of borders,  determining the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Against this  background, we can unequivocally state that neither Armenia nor  Azerbaijan is definitely interested in breaking off relations with  Russia, "Markedonov summed up. 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
"Business Process Optimization with AI" – a Course for the Senior Management of AraratBank
100th birthday anniversary of great masters Henrikh Malyan and Aghasi  Ayvazyan to be marked in Yerevan100th birthday anniversary of great masters Henrikh Malyan and Aghasi  Ayvazyan to be marked in Yerevan
Lands in Goris community to be donated to Little Ones of Armenia  charitable foundation Lands in Goris community to be donated to Little Ones of Armenia  charitable foundation 
RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members 
U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia 
Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people 
ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan 
OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC 
Armenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership CommitteeArmenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership Committee
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi 
Samvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million dramsSamvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million drams
Zhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian StudiesZhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian Studies
Court`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyerCourt`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyer
Artur Sargsyan arrested for 2 monthsArtur Sargsyan arrested for 2 months
ARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issuesARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issues
RA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visitRA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visit
RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  "Zangezur corridor"
Zakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to UkraineZakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to Ukraine
Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of "no man, no problem"
Starting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIAStarting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIA
A decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyerA decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyer
Armenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issuesArmenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issues
Prosperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption CommitteeProsperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption Committee
Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them 
AAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian ChurchAAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian Church
Armenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South CaucasusArmenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South Caucasus
Zakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop listsZakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop lists
Briefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US CongressBriefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US Congress
Lawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatusLawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatus
Armenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctorsArmenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctors
Armenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiativeArmenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiative
Court discussing MP`s arrestCourt discussing MP`s arrest
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi 
Civil Contract party board meeting take place Civil Contract party board meeting take place 
Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer 
U.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy BruceU.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy Bruce
Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan 
Expecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MPExpecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MP
Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan 
Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina 
Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs 
Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert 
Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir 
Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert 
Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan 
Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior 
Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon 
Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia 
Artur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunityArtur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunity
Political scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centersPolitical scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centers
World Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic ChurchWorld Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic Church
Armenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of AggressionArmenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of Aggression
Armenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation bodyArmenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation body
 RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of  SOS Children`s Villages RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of SOS Children`s Villages
Jerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - ReportJerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - Report
Narek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir GroupNarek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir Group
Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program 
Vice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaosVice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaos
No detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEONo detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEO
War in Armenia - politician War in Armenia - politician 
Read more



Commented