Analyst: Neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan is interested in breaking off  relations with Russia

ArmInfo.It seems obvious that no West, either individually or collectively, will save Armenia.  Moreover, it will not give Armenia more than what Russia currently  gives.  A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Sergei  Markedonov, Leading Researcher at the MGIMO Institute for  International Studies, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of  International Analytics.

"I think that it is quite appropriate here to recall the repeated  pro-Armenian statements made by French President Macron both during  and after the 44-day war in Karabakh. It should be realized that  Macron will not bear real responsibility for these statements, first  of all, due to the fact that the Karabakh problem is actually  perceived by Paris in a completely different context, part of which  are rather serious disagreements between France and Turkey over the  Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Cyprus and the Mediterranean region as  a whole, "he said.

In Markedonov's opinion, of course, Karabakh is being used by Macron  as a bargaining chip in the pre- election struggle against the  eternal rival Marine Le Pen, so that the latter will not be able to  recall the "Turkish-Islamic attack on France." And given the presence  of a half-million Armenian Diaspora in France, in Markedonov's  opinion Macron also demonstrates a desire to protect Christian  brothers. However, in reality, according to the analyst, Macron's  statements are rather declarations for internal use and as an  argument in an external game with Turkey than a real policy of France  in the Caucasus.  

According to him, in the case of Azerbaijan the West is clearly not  an object of heightened sympathy of the country's leadership. In the  case of the integration prospects of Azerbaijan with Turkey, there  are many risks. Especially considering the extravagant temperament of  President Erdogan. In general, the scale of military operations in  Karabakh and the rather quick victory of Azerbaijan, the speed of  breaking the 26- year status quo, according to Markedonov, came as a  real surprise. Although, analyzing the statements of Heydar and Ilham  Aliyev, it becomes clear that Azerbaijan has never concealed its  intentions.

And nevertheless, having stopped some problems, the victory of  Azerbaijan, in his opinion, actualized or created other problems. In  particular, after it became clear that, having strengthened its  position in the South Caucasus, Turkey is not at all averse to  drawing Azerbaijan into the game on the Pakistani-Afghani direction.   This has already found its expression in two declarations signed in  Islamabad and Baku. At the same time, Azerbaijan, according to  Markedonov, does not at all seek to recognize the same Northern  Cyprus. And being a secular state, it looks with apprehension at the  Islamizing Turkey.

"It is clear that Russia for Azerbaijan in this light is a  counterbalance to Turkey. However, the policy of maneuvering does not  at all prevent the representatives of the Ministry of Defense and the  diplomatic corps of this country from carefully but periodically  reminding about the temporary nature of the deployment of Russian  peacekeepers in Karabakh. The contingent in Karabakh will stay for  five years, which was not in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which  significantly complicates Moscow's task. This raises the question of  the appropriateness of a deep settlement of the conflict. But if  Russia does not raise the issue, it will be raised by someone else.   "Moreover, with a completely different content, which is not  completely acceptable for Moscow," he said.

According to the analyst's observations, a certain reformatting of  the conflict is already taking place. In particular, the issue of  border demarcation and delimitation came to the fore, which gave  literally every piece of land of fundamental importance. Based on the  rationalism, neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan, in his opinion, try to  worsen relations with Russia, especially, t does not make sense to  break them. At the same time, he noted that politics is not always  based on rationalism, and in the Karabakh issue, emotions, especially  from Baku, are frequent.

"Here, I think, it is appropriate to emphasize the existence of a  difference between Azerbaijan's struggle for the maximalist level and  the status of the very core of Karabakh. Accordingly, according to my  forecasts, in the future of the relations of the Moscow-Yerevan-Baku  triangle, much will now depend on the issue of peacekeepers. As well  as advancing the process of demarcation and delimitation of borders,  determining the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. Against this  background, we can unequivocally state that neither Armenia nor  Azerbaijan is definitely interested in breaking off relations with  Russia, "Markedonov summed up.