ArmInfo.Regardless of whether the observed trends and global changes in the world order were the result of the coronavirus pandemic or it all started much earlier, these changes are reality and they undoubtedly have affected the South Caucasus as well. The German political scientist Alexander Rahr expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"As of today we are witnessing very active processes for the geopolitical reformatting of this region, in which both the countries of the region and regional powers are involved, as well as extra-regional centers of power. From this point of view, we can state the desire of all these forces, including the European Union, to occupy their own firm place in the emerging regional, geopolitical alignment of forces, "he said.
Nevertheless, according to Rahr's forecasts, given the multi-directional efforts towards reformatting the South Caucasus on the part of geopolitical centers, the final transformation of the region, a new geopolitical status quo will not happen so soon. In particular, in his opinion, the prospects for the implementation of the "3 + 3" format and even the fate of the OSCE Minsk Group seem very vague.
According to the political scientist, in such a situation Brussels is no longer content with the Eastern Partnership and does not mind participating in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict outside the OSCE Minsk Group. In this light, he highlighted the EU's expectations regarding future participation in the delimitation-demarcation of borders, the signing of a peace treaty, and the unblocking of communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Rahr considers all recent visits of European officials to Armenia and Azerbaijan within the framework of this policy of Brussels.
"In fact, proving the absence of the previous world order, including in the South Caucasus, at this stage it seems possible to notice the regional confusion, from which the outlines of the future status quo are gradually being drawn. The processes, on the whole, are rather unpredictable, which poses a rather difficult task for the countries of the region to calculate all possible scenarios. I think that, first of all, much in this regard still depends on Russia, Turkey and Iran, "the German political scientist summed up.