Forecast:  The final geopolitical transformation of the South Caucasus  will not happen so soon

ArmInfo.Regardless of whether the observed trends and global changes in the world order were the result of the coronavirus pandemic or it all started much earlier,  these changes are reality and they undoubtedly have affected the  South Caucasus as well. The German political scientist Alexander Rahr  expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"As of today we are witnessing very active processes for the  geopolitical reformatting of this region, in which both the countries  of the region and regional powers are involved, as well as  extra-regional centers of power. From this point of view, we can  state the desire of all these forces, including the European Union,  to occupy their own firm place in the emerging regional, geopolitical  alignment of forces, "he said.

Nevertheless, according to Rahr's forecasts, given the  multi-directional efforts towards reformatting the South Caucasus on  the part of geopolitical centers, the final transformation  of the  region, a new geopolitical status quo will not happen so soon. In  particular, in his opinion, the prospects for the implementation of  the "3 + 3" format and even the fate of the OSCE Minsk Group seem  very vague.

According to the political scientist, in such a situation Brussels is  no longer content with the Eastern Partnership and does not mind  participating in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict outside the  OSCE Minsk Group. In this light, he highlighted the EU's expectations  regarding future participation in the delimitation-demarcation of  borders, the signing of a peace treaty, and the unblocking of  communications between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Rahr considers all  recent visits of European officials to Armenia and Azerbaijan within  the framework of this policy of Brussels.

"In fact, proving the absence of the previous world order, including  in the South Caucasus, at this stage it seems possible to notice the  regional confusion, from which the outlines of the future status quo  are gradually being drawn. The processes, on the whole, are rather  unpredictable, which poses a rather difficult task for the countries  of the region to calculate all possible scenarios. I think that,  first of all, much in this regard still depends on Russia, Turkey and  Iran, "the German political scientist summed up.