Friday, October 15 2021 16:47

ArmInfo. The situation in which the Armenians of Karabakh are protected from ethnic cleansing by only 2,000 Russian peacekeepers and, of course, the military power of  Russia behind them is not in the interests of either these people, or  Armenia, or Russia itself. Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at  the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute  of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Ministry of Foreign  Affairs, expressed a similar opinion at the Geopolitical Session  "Armenia and Russia: the Imperative of a New Strategy" being held at  the Russian-Armenian University in Yerevan.

"In this light, the path to peace proposed by Russia by unblocking  all communications in the region is practically uncontested. I  understand that this sounds utopian, but this is a chance at least to  get on the path to building trust and prevent further killing of  people. All this, ultimately, strengthens the security guarantees of  both Armenia and the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh, "he stressed.

In Silaev's opinion, the location of the "red lines" for Russia in  the Karabakh issue and elsewhere, unfortunately, remains uncertain.  And if these lines are drawn, they are drawn with blood. "Let's face  it, the red lines for Russia are a situation in which Russia openly  enters the war. And this uncertainty in the place of their  implementation exists, including for Moscow. Unfortunately, in the  foreseeable future we are all:  Russians, Armenians, Turks, the  Americans will be in a state of uncertainty about the red lines. That  is why it is so important to come up with solutions that would help  establish a lasting peace in the region," the Russian expert  emphasized.

Commenting on the results of the 44-day war for Russia, Silaev noted  that in the Russian Federation itself they were assessed in different  ways - from triumphant to very pessimistic. Optimists mentioned the  buildup of the Russian presence in the South Caucasus, pessimists  about the lost role of the leading power in the region by Russia and  the concession of this role to Turkey. In his opinion, both opinions  are not entirely correct, and the truth, as always, is in the middle.

"It is obvious that the situation has changed significantly, and not  in favor of the Russian Federation. The right to force was fulfilled  - something that all three OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries  opposed for decades and the parties to the conflict themselves as  well. The result was attempts to settle the conflict, not a solution,  since the Karabakh conflict is undoubtedly not settled. At the same  time, Russia's ally was defeated in this war. Turkey's ally was  victorious. In the international community, all this is perceived and  will be perceived in this way, and this is an obvious blow to the  status and prestige of the Russian Federation. Is this a disaster for  Moscow? In my opinion, no," he stressed.

Silaev's last thesis is conditioned by the even greater involvement  of the Russian Federation in the settlement of the Karabakh conflict  than was observed before the war. And with the deployment of Russian  peacekeepers in Artsakh following the war, Russian mediation only  intensified. In this light, the expert also recalled that during the  deployment of the peacekeeping situation, Russia suffered losses, not  the United States or France.

"All this means that for the Russian Federation the state consistency  and the military power of Armenia are of even greater importance  today than before the war. Russia needs a strong Armenia, on which we  can rely, and which will be able to fulfill its allied functions and  defend itself to some extent. And we proceed from the premise that  this alliance should be long-term. Military reconstruction is already  taking place with the help of Russia. But it is necessary to  strengthen the economy, prevent the outflow of the population.  And  in the coming years, the Armenian-Russian alliance will deal with all  these tasks. Armenia should maintain balance with neighboring  countries. And this balance is not exhausted by the  military-political component, " summed up Silaev.