ArmInfo. In the event of a confrontation between Moscow and Ankara, Armenia and Azerbaijan will be in the role of a proxy. Director of the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) at Russian Academy of Sciences Professor Feodor Voitolovsky expressed a similar opinion at the Geopolitical Session "Armenia and Russia: Imperative of a New Strategy" held at the Russian-Armenian University (RAU) in Yerevan.
"There are such risks, and they are quite high. In this light, a sharp deterioration in relations between the Russian Federation and Turkey is not beneficial to either Armenia or Azerbaijan. I should especially note that last year's 44-day war in Nagorno-Karabakh, among many other goals, pursued the goal of punishing Russia. We in Moscow know this and understand it very well, "he stressed.
According to the professor, there is cooperation between Moscow and Ankara today. But there is also competition and elements of confrontation. In his opinion, the situation in the Transcaucasia and the Middle East is no different from this point of view. At the same time, Voitolovsky is convinced that Turkey's actions in Nagorno-Karabakh, on the whole, were quite satisfactory for Washington. Including due to the U.S. policy of parallel containment in different regions of China and Russia. In his opinion, from this point of view, Turkey's actions in Karabakh, the aggravation of the situation in Transcaucasia in the long term, proceed from the interests of the United States. According to Voitolovskiy, "pulling Turkey and Russia into a confrontation in the Transcaucasus" is beneficial for them.
Another important result of last year's war, in his opinion, is Turkey's increase in its capitalization in NATO, through the demonstrative use of its armed forces and military equipment in Karabakh, and not just its proxies in Syria. At the same time, the Russian analyst expressed his conviction that without the appropriate sanctions from Washington, Ankara, as a NATO ally, simply could not operate in Karabakh. "And here no one should have any illusions. The U.S. had every opportunity to put pressure on Ankara and Baku in the UN Security Council and end the war, however, this was not done," he stressed.
The Russian professor also highlighted the fact of strengthening Turkey's positions in Azerbaijan following the results of the autumn war. At the same time, Voitolovsky is not sure that the agenda put forward by Ankara in Azerbaijan will be in the interests of its leadership. "The very term "one nation - two states" implies a junior partner and a senior partner. And Turkey openly regards Azerbaijan as its junior partner. And as of today, I do not think that such a state of affairs is really beneficial for Baku, "he said.
"Thus, the coordinate system that emerged as a result of the 44-day war differs very seriously from the entire post-Soviet period. We have entered a completely new period in the development of international relations, not only in Transcaucasia, but also throughout the entire post-Soviet space. And this is the coordinate system in which we will all have to live in the coming years. In this light, it seems that the problems and frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet space between different countries may acquire a completely new sound and development. In this regard, the conflict in Karabakh is perhaps atypical, but it is precisely this that sets the general tone for further impulses in this very space," Voitolovsky summed up.