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 Thursday, October 14 2021 16:37
David Stepanyan

Forecast: There is no reason to expect the South Caucasus to come out  of geopolitical turbulence soon

Forecast: There is no reason to expect the South Caucasus to come out  of geopolitical turbulence soon

ArmInfo. There is no reason to expect an early exit from the current state of geopolitical turbulence in the South Caucasus. Political scientist Stepan  Danielyan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"Given the constant increase in the number of countries wishing to  take part in the Caucasian developments, I do not see any immediate  prospects for signing any document regulating the situation,  including in our region. We see that Iran and India have already  joined the ranks of active players in our region. All this confuses  the psituation even more, taking into account the external, rather  serious and contradictory interests mixed in the region," he  stressed.

In this light, the political scientist highlighted the processes  around the "3 + 3" format. In his opinion, the recent consent and  then refusal of Georgian Foreign Minister Zalkaliani to participate  in this format, also speaks of a rather difficult situation in the  region. A situation, in which the South Caucasus today is engulfed in  a multi-vector, multidimensional geopolitical game, in which, judging  by the behavior of Georgia, the United States and Europe are becoming  more and more active.

According to Danielyan, in all these combinations, Armenia is not  even assigned the role of a subject with an opinion that has to be  taken into account. Moreover, Yerevan's steps in this game are  dictated by various external forces. Which varies depending on who  has more powerful levers of pressure on Armenia at one stage or  another. The political scientist considers the last meeting of  Putin-Pashinyan to be another synchronization of watches, which means  that Armenia and the Russian Federation are pursuing a single line in  this multi-vector and multi-combination geopolitical game.

In Danielyan's opinion, Azerbaijan in turn, also turned out to be not  in the best positions in the current geopolitical games. First of  all, due to the obvious military pressure from Iran. According to  him, all the recent actions of the Iranian army on the border with  Azerbaijan are a very serious warning to Baku from the groans of  Tehran. According to the political scientist, that has already forced  Aliyev to approach the situation and his own capabilities with a  greater degree of sobriety.

"At the same time, we are witnessing the weakening of Turkey's  geopolitical positions. The latter, among other things, is due to its  gradual entanglement in parallel processes. And in light of the need  to protect the Kurds and the appearance of the American military in  Syria, we see an even greater deterioration in relations between  Washington and Ankara. . Russia, in turn, is also putting pressure on  Turkey, including in the same Syria. And Turkey, in turn, simply does  not have the ability to put pressure on Russia today, "the political  scientist summed up.


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