ArmInfo. In the coming years, I do not expect another big war around Nagorno-Karabakh. Nikolay Silaev, a Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of International Studies of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Foreign Ministry, expressed this to ArmInfo.
" Of course, it is likely Baku is not very satisfied with the final geopolitical outcome of the 44-day war. But at the same time, I do not quite understand how such dissatisfaction with its outcome can be combined with the statements of Ilham Aliyev, according to which the Nagorno-Karabakh issue is closed. And I do not think that in 4 years Azerbaijan can demand the withdrawal of our peacekeepers from Karabakh," he stressed.
According to the expert, relations with Russia are important for Azerbaijan for a number of reasons and among other things, due to the fact that relations with Moscow help Baku to maintain a balance in relations with Ankara. In his opinion, this is evidenced by the Shusha Declaration signed between Turkey and Azerbaijan, which is rather cautious and does not contain direct mutual obligations.
In this light, Silaev also noted the broad economic cooperation, the interests of Azerbaijan, in particular, the Azerbaijani elite in the economy of the Russian Federation, certain security guarantees provided by Moscow to Baku. In his opinion, this situation suggests that Baku will carefully weigh everything and think before applying to Moscow with a request to withdraw the peacekeepers from Karabakh, moreover, to sever relations its with Russia.
According to Silaev, the issue of the status of Karabakh remains open. And until it is resolved, it seems impossible to talk about closing the issue and the problem of Karabakh. Especially in light of the threat of ethnic cleansing in Karabakh if it falls under the control of Baku. This only confirms the need for peacekeepers in Karabakh. He also noted that, judging by the mood of the parties to the conflict, they themselves are not ready to resolve the issue of status today.
"Against this background, the next long, long-term, fruitless negotiations on the status issue seem to be the most realistic scenario. First of all, due to the presence of a general interest in avoiding another senseless bloodshed in the region. By the way, Russia is primarily interested in this. The issue must be discussed and the problem must be resolved on its merits, taking into account the views of all parties, "Silaev summed up.