ArmInfo.Participation in the proposed regional "3 + 3" format will in no way prevent Moscow from squeezing Ankara out at the first opportunity, if not completely ousting it from the South Caucasus. A senior analyst at the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center (GSAC) Gela Vasadze expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Perhaps now it seems difficult to implement, but big politics is a game with long-term guidelines and goals. This is also why Moscow today is trying with all its might to expand the real format of "2 + 2": Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, using France in the format of the OSCE Minsk Group and Iran in the "3 + 3" format as representatives and speakers for its interests. For a number of reasons, Russia today needs to demonstrate neutrality. And such "neutrality", among other things, will allow it to continue its attempts to achieve dominance in Azerbaijan," he stressed.
Thus, today the "3 + 3" format, according to Vasadze, does not suit not only Georgia, but also Azerbaijan. Moreover, for Georgia, the main practical risk of participation in this format is due to the prospect of opening a railway through Abkhazia. Noting the coincidence in this project of the interests of Moscow, Ankara and Tehran, the political scientist stressed that some talk about it already harms the national interests of Georgia. What should be understood in Tbilisi.
In this light, referring to his sources in Yerevan, Vasadze noted that during his Saturday visit to Armenia, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili discussed with his Armenian counterpart Nikol Pashinyan not so much the initiative of bilateral negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as Georgia's participation in the "3+ 3" platform. According to Vasadze, at first glance, there is nothing terrible or scary in this platform itself - after all, this is another negotiation format. However, one of its main topics is the unblocking of transport communications. Meanwhile, looking at the map, it immediately becomes clear that whatever one may say, it is Georgia that is the central crossroads of transport communications in the region. "And this, in turn, means that the number one point in relation to Georgia on this platform will be precisely the opening of the railway through Abkhazia," he said.
" The moment is the most favorable for this. Georgia is weakened by the political crisis, and our leadership is ready to surrender anything, in exchange for guarantees of maintaining power. And the West will not interfere in all this - why should it interfere, given everything that has happened throughout the last year." Thus, participation in "3 + 3" will ensure the loading of the port of Novorossiysk from the southern direction, actualize occupied Abkhazia in the system of international transport communications and create new opportunities for Russia to promote its interests in Georgia. Not to mention that the opening of this road is simply humiliating for us," Vasadze emphasized.