Forecast: "3 + 3" will in no way prevent Moscow from squeezing Ankara  out at the first opportunity

ArmInfo.Participation in the proposed regional "3 + 3" format will in no way prevent Moscow from squeezing Ankara out at the first opportunity, if not completely  ousting it from the South Caucasus. A senior analyst at the Georgian  Strategic Analysis Center (GSAC) Gela Vasadze expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"Perhaps now it seems difficult to implement, but big politics is a  game with long-term guidelines and goals. This is also why Moscow  today is trying with all its might to expand the real format of "2 +  2":  Russia, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan, using France in the format  of the OSCE Minsk Group and Iran in the "3 + 3" format as  representatives and speakers for its interests. For a number of  reasons, Russia today needs to demonstrate neutrality. And such  "neutrality", among other things, will allow it to continue its  attempts to achieve dominance in Azerbaijan," he stressed.

Thus, today the "3 + 3" format, according to Vasadze, does not suit  not only Georgia, but also Azerbaijan.  Moreover, for Georgia, the  main practical risk of participation in this format is due to the  prospect of opening a railway through Abkhazia. Noting the  coincidence in this project of the interests of Moscow, Ankara and  Tehran, the political scientist stressed that some talk about it  already harms the national interests of Georgia. What should be  understood in Tbilisi.

In this light, referring to his sources in Yerevan, Vasadze noted  that during his Saturday visit to Armenia, Georgian Prime Minister  Irakli Garibashvili discussed with his Armenian counterpart Nikol  Pashinyan not so much the initiative of bilateral negotiations  between Armenia and Azerbaijan as Georgia's participation in the "3+  3" platform.  According to Vasadze, at first glance, there is nothing  terrible or scary in this platform itself - after all, this is  another negotiation format. However, one of its main topics is the  unblocking of transport communications. Meanwhile, looking at the  map, it immediately becomes clear that whatever one may say, it is  Georgia that is the central crossroads of transport communications in  the region. "And this, in turn, means that the number one point in  relation to Georgia on this platform will be precisely the opening of  the railway through Abkhazia," he said.

" The moment is the most favorable for this. Georgia is weakened by  the political crisis, and our leadership is ready to surrender  anything, in exchange for guarantees of maintaining power. And the  West will not interfere in all this - why should it interfere, given  everything that has happened throughout the last year." Thus,  participation in "3 + 3" will ensure the loading of the port of  Novorossiysk from the southern direction, actualize occupied Abkhazia  in the system of international transport communications and create  new opportunities for Russia to promote its interests in Georgia. Not  to mention that the opening of this road is simply humiliating for  us," Vasadze emphasized.