Analyst: Tension in the South Caucasus is due to its turbulence

ArmInfo. The current tension, a new round of tension in the South Caucasus, this time between Iran and Azerbaijan, is due to the turbulence that has gripped this region  after a 44-day war. Alexey Malashenko, Chief Researcher at the  Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the  Russian Academy of Sciences expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.  

"Today, not only the South Caucasus, the whole world lives in a  constantly changing geopolitical situation.  But in the South  Caucasus, as a result of the 44-day war, among other things, the  security environment has undergone serious transformations. As a  result, the region is now in a situation that no one could even  imagine a couple of years ago, "he stressed.  Noting in recent weeks  the consistent mutual aggravation of rhetoric between Tehran and  Baku, the accumulation of armed people and military equipment on the  borders, the holding of military exercises in Iran and Azerbaijan,  the analyst saw the need for synchronization of views among the  leaders of the rest of the region. In this light, he noted the  forthcoming meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Russia this  year.

According to Malashenko's estimates, at this stage, there are many  topics for discussion between Putin and Pashinyan. This is due to  both the current situation and the requirements of Iran, Azerbaijan  and Armenia itself, as well as the regional alignment of forces, and  the implementation of the agreements of November 9 and January 11,  2020 and 2021. In this light, he stressed the threats that Iran began  to see for itself in the zones that have been controlled by  Azerbaijan for some time now.

Noting the fact of the recent change of power in Iran, the analyst  noted that Moscow, in turn, is also trying to understand the  directions of work with the new authorities in Tehran in the context  of Iranian expectations from the Russian Federation. At the same  time, Malashenko considered that the main problem for Tehran on its  northern borders is not even Azerbaijan, but Israel. Turkey is a  secondary source of Iranian problems.

"I think Tehran is well aware of the prospects for the growth of the  power factor of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem on its borders. The  situation is getting worse and exacerbated by the prohibitive  militarization of Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran itself. The  results of the 44-day war a year later led the region to an even more  difficult, I would say, an unprecedented period for the South  Caucasus, given Tehran's dissatisfaction with the agreements that  culminated in that war. And it is impossible not to take this  dissatisfaction into account. Especially in the current turbulence,  "summed up Malashenko.