ArmInfo. The current tension, a new round of tension in the South Caucasus, this time between Iran and Azerbaijan, is due to the turbulence that has gripped this region after a 44-day war. Alexey Malashenko, Chief Researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO) of the Russian Academy of Sciences expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Today, not only the South Caucasus, the whole world lives in a constantly changing geopolitical situation. But in the South Caucasus, as a result of the 44-day war, among other things, the security environment has undergone serious transformations. As a result, the region is now in a situation that no one could even imagine a couple of years ago, "he stressed. Noting in recent weeks the consistent mutual aggravation of rhetoric between Tehran and Baku, the accumulation of armed people and military equipment on the borders, the holding of military exercises in Iran and Azerbaijan, the analyst saw the need for synchronization of views among the leaders of the rest of the region. In this light, he noted the forthcoming meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Russia this year.
According to Malashenko's estimates, at this stage, there are many topics for discussion between Putin and Pashinyan. This is due to both the current situation and the requirements of Iran, Azerbaijan and Armenia itself, as well as the regional alignment of forces, and the implementation of the agreements of November 9 and January 11, 2020 and 2021. In this light, he stressed the threats that Iran began to see for itself in the zones that have been controlled by Azerbaijan for some time now.
Noting the fact of the recent change of power in Iran, the analyst noted that Moscow, in turn, is also trying to understand the directions of work with the new authorities in Tehran in the context of Iranian expectations from the Russian Federation. At the same time, Malashenko considered that the main problem for Tehran on its northern borders is not even Azerbaijan, but Israel. Turkey is a secondary source of Iranian problems.
"I think Tehran is well aware of the prospects for the growth of the power factor of the Turkish-Azerbaijani tandem on its borders. The situation is getting worse and exacerbated by the prohibitive militarization of Israel, Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Iran itself. The results of the 44-day war a year later led the region to an even more difficult, I would say, an unprecedented period for the South Caucasus, given Tehran's dissatisfaction with the agreements that culminated in that war. And it is impossible not to take this dissatisfaction into account. Especially in the current turbulence, "summed up Malashenko.