View from Tbilisi: Geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus  excludes forcing Armenia and Azerbaijan to make serious concessions

ArmInfo.The reality of the current geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus reflects a new balance formed as a result of the 44-day war. The latter does not  leave any of the external players an opportunity to force one or  another side of the Karabakh conflict to make serious concessions.  Gela Vasadze, senior analyst at the Georgian Center for Strategic  Analysis, expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"Against this background, the international community is engaged in  completely different matters, and Turkey and Russia are guided by  exclusively their own interests. The conclusion is that everything  depends on the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan. On their  political will. Either they will have to sit down at the negotiating  table and come out on the basis of mutual fundamental concessions  towards a political solution to the conflict, or continue to  aggravate the situation and prepare for a convenient moment for  striking another blow, "he stressed. 

Despite the activation of the OSCE Minsk Group, Vasadze has  absolutely no idea what the co-chairs can offer the parties to the  conflict today. And, moreover, how such offers can be implemented. In  his opinion, the United States and France, as countries that have no  vital interests in the Caucasus, can only initiate a negotiation  process that excludes the possibility of interference by third  countries. According to Vasadze, we are talking about Russia, Turkey  and Iran, which in the current situation would look quite logical.

At the same time, according to his estimates, in the current  situation, the co-chairs, with the exception of Russia, do not have  mechanisms to influence the parties to the conflict. At the same  time, Russia, which is a party to the trilateral format with the  participation of Armenia and Azerbaijan, absolutely does not need the  Minsk Group to promote its own interests in the region. Hence, new  contradictions arise in the interests of the co-chairing countries.   "In any case, this conflict with a length of more than a century must  end. I think this is obvious to everyone. Any war always ends in  peace. But until this peace comes, people continue to die - this is  the saddest thing in this whole story. I personally see a chance for  peace, despite the fact that there are many difficulties on the way  of its implementation. And negotiations between the two countries,  their interest in achieving peace is the main factor for realizing  this chance. Georgia, as a country of the region, is undoubtedly  interested in reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey and  Azerbaijan, "Vasadze summed up.