ArmInfo.The reality of the current geopolitical situation in the South Caucasus reflects a new balance formed as a result of the 44-day war. The latter does not leave any of the external players an opportunity to force one or another side of the Karabakh conflict to make serious concessions. Gela Vasadze, senior analyst at the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis, expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"Against this background, the international community is engaged in completely different matters, and Turkey and Russia are guided by exclusively their own interests. The conclusion is that everything depends on the leadership of Armenia and Azerbaijan. On their political will. Either they will have to sit down at the negotiating table and come out on the basis of mutual fundamental concessions towards a political solution to the conflict, or continue to aggravate the situation and prepare for a convenient moment for striking another blow, "he stressed.
Despite the activation of the OSCE Minsk Group, Vasadze has absolutely no idea what the co-chairs can offer the parties to the conflict today. And, moreover, how such offers can be implemented. In his opinion, the United States and France, as countries that have no vital interests in the Caucasus, can only initiate a negotiation process that excludes the possibility of interference by third countries. According to Vasadze, we are talking about Russia, Turkey and Iran, which in the current situation would look quite logical.
At the same time, according to his estimates, in the current situation, the co-chairs, with the exception of Russia, do not have mechanisms to influence the parties to the conflict. At the same time, Russia, which is a party to the trilateral format with the participation of Armenia and Azerbaijan, absolutely does not need the Minsk Group to promote its own interests in the region. Hence, new contradictions arise in the interests of the co-chairing countries. "In any case, this conflict with a length of more than a century must end. I think this is obvious to everyone. Any war always ends in peace. But until this peace comes, people continue to die - this is the saddest thing in this whole story. I personally see a chance for peace, despite the fact that there are many difficulties on the way of its implementation. And negotiations between the two countries, their interest in achieving peace is the main factor for realizing this chance. Georgia, as a country of the region, is undoubtedly interested in reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey and Azerbaijan, "Vasadze summed up.