Forecast: Satisfying Turkey`s preconditions today, Armenia will  inevitably be faced with new ones tomorrow

ArmInfo.Turkey's logic in expressing its readiness to normalize relations with Armenia only if Yerevan fulfills its preconditions is, on the whole, understandable.  Former Director of the Armenian Genocide Museum-Institute, Doctor of  Historical Sciences Hayk Demoyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

"This logic has remained unchanged for decades. And all the latest  statements by Turkish Foreign Minister Cavusoglu and President  Erdogan in practice mean one thing - Ankara seeks to make the most of  the new situation in the Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey triangle. At the  same time, not only now, but also in the case of hypothetical  establishment of diplomatic relations and opening of borders. The  situation, the state of Armenia after the 44-day war creates all  preconditions for Turkey for periodically setting new political and  other preconditions for Armenia, "he stressed.

In this light, according to Demoyan's forecasts, by agreeing to  satisfy Turkish preconditions today, Armenia will give the Turks the  opportunity to treat Armenia not as a neighboring country - a  full-fledged subject of international relations, but as an object, a  country that can be used as a bargaining chip in any issue.  In other  words, Yerevan will itself give Ankara the opportunity to contribute  to its further marginalization.

Commenting on this background, the desire of the Armenian leadership  to normalize relations with Turkey, Demoyan recalled that the  willingness to normalize relations without preconditions was always  expressed by Yerevan and all of Nikol Pashinyan's predecessors. In  this light, he stressed Yerevan's agreement to settle relations with  Ankara without recognizing by the latter the fact of the Armenian  Genocide. At the same time, the historian assessed the Zurich attempt  to establish relations as initially doomed to defeat, taking into  account the influence of Azerbaijan on Ankara's decisions.

"After the statement of November 9, which recorded Armenia's defeat,  the then Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament, Lena Nazaryan,  unexpectedly saw in this tragedy" a good chance to end the enmity  with Turkey. " The latter, in fact, directly stated to the Turks that  in the absence of a war or the victory of Armenia in this war, there  would be no chance of a normalization of relations. And this,  attention, was announced to a country with an imperial past, "he  stressed.

In this light, Demoyan suggests that the people who came to power in  Armenia in the spring of 2018 were initially inclined to normalize  relations with Turkey. Moreover, at any cost, even by agreeing to all  Turkish preconditions. In his opinion, such a scenario for unraveling  the Armenian-Turkish tangle may well be the subject of a consensus  between geopolitical centers of power. Accordingly, Russia and the  West are interested in its implementation, which are putting pressure  on Armenia in this matter.  "It is clear that external forces can put  pressure on Armenia in the issue of the settlement of relations with  Turkey. It is also clear that they are ready to achieve this at any  cost. The whole question is that the ones to pay the price, not the  West or Russia. Moreover, pay more than once but many times in the  future. The logic of future relations between Armenia and Turkey in  the event of Yerevan's consent to satisfy Ankara's preconditions will  lead to such a scenario, "the historian summed up.