ArmInfo.Russian-Turkish relations are very far from formal, since they are saturated with a huge number of real issues and problems that need to be resolved on the spot from time to time.
A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in- Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, commenting on the likely agenda of the meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for September 29 during Recep Erdogan's visit to Russia.
"All these issues and problems are the subject of constant, rather complicated bargaining between Ankara and Moscow. The need for Putin-Erdogan meetings is due to the periodic stalemate of this process. Presidents never meet just like that; they understand each other very well. Nevertheless, I do not expect the achievement of any really breakthrough agreements from their upcoming meeting in Sochi, "he stressed.
The analyst explains such pessimism by the absence of a compromise between Moscow and Ankara on Idlib, which in turn is due to their diametrically opposed interests in this region. In this light, he recalled that all previous agreements on the withdrawal of Turkish militants from Idlib by Ankara had not been observed. The latter, according to Lukyanov, is forcing Moscow from time to time to exert another stage of force pressure on Turkey, including the bombing of militant bases in Syria.
"It is clear that after that Putin and Erdogan will sit at the negotiating table again. You know, Turkey does not need existential threats, for example, in the form of new crowds of refugees from Syria rushing into its territory. A process is underway, an endless process in which there are no ready-made solutions, the process by which the parties manage to avoid a direct collision, which in itself is already a considerable achievement," he stressed.
In this light, commenting the current Russian policy in the South Caucasus, Lukyanov forecasted the preservation, possibly with minor adjustments, of its current vector. At the same time, he did not rule out the possibility of an increase in the presence of the West in the region, which, in his opinion, may affect, among other things, the fate of the OSCE Minsk Group, which will finally return to the Karabakh conflict.
"The region today is in the epicenter of regional transformations and active geopolitical struggle. This has already led to changes in the foreign policy of the Russian Federation in general and in the post-Soviet space in particular. In my opinion, today two main possible scenarios are emerging with regard to the South Caucasus. There is a geopolitical consensus of both. And the whole question is under whose control these scenarios will be implemented. In other words, there is practically no reason to expect drastic changes in the ongoing processes, "the analyst concluded.