Forecast: No breakthrough agreements should be expected from the  Putin-Erdogan meeting

ArmInfo.Russian-Turkish relations are very far from formal, since they are saturated with a huge number of real issues and problems that need to be resolved on  the spot from time to time.

A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in- Chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for  Foreign and Defense Policy, commenting on the likely agenda of the  meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin scheduled for September  29 during Recep Erdogan's visit to Russia.

"All these issues and problems are the subject of constant, rather  complicated bargaining between Ankara and Moscow. The need for  Putin-Erdogan meetings is due to the periodic stalemate of this  process.  Presidents never meet just like that; they understand each  other very well. Nevertheless, I do not expect the achievement of any  really breakthrough agreements from their upcoming meeting in Sochi,  "he stressed.

The analyst explains such pessimism by the absence of a compromise  between Moscow and Ankara on Idlib, which in turn is due to their  diametrically opposed interests in this region. In this light, he  recalled that all previous agreements on the withdrawal of Turkish  militants from Idlib by Ankara had not been observed. The latter,  according to Lukyanov, is forcing Moscow from time to time to exert  another stage of force pressure on Turkey, including the bombing of  militant bases in Syria.

"It is clear that after that Putin and Erdogan will sit at the  negotiating table again. You know, Turkey does not need existential  threats, for example, in the form of new crowds of refugees from  Syria rushing into its territory. A process is underway, an endless  process in which there are no ready-made solutions, the process by  which the parties manage to avoid a direct collision, which in itself  is already a considerable achievement," he stressed.  

In this light, commenting the current Russian policy in the South  Caucasus, Lukyanov forecasted the preservation, possibly with minor  adjustments, of its current vector. At the same time, he did not rule  out the possibility of an increase in the presence of the West in the  region, which, in his opinion, may affect, among other things, the  fate of the OSCE Minsk Group, which will finally return to the  Karabakh conflict.  

"The region today is in the epicenter of regional transformations and  active geopolitical struggle. This has already led to changes in the  foreign policy of the Russian Federation in general and in the  post-Soviet space in particular. In my opinion, today two main  possible scenarios are emerging with regard to the South Caucasus.   There is a geopolitical consensus of both. And the whole question is  under whose control these scenarios will be implemented. In other  words, there is practically no reason to expect drastic changes in  the ongoing processes, "the analyst concluded.