Russian analyst: The weakness of impulses coming from Yerevan and  Ankara do not allow predicting the future of Armenian-Turkish  relations

ArmInfo.The weakness of impulses and signals coming from Yerevan and Ankara to improve the mutual relations does not allow predicting the future of the  Armenian-Turkish relations unambiguously. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov, Editor-in-Chief of Russia in  Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for  Foreign and Defense Policy. 

On August 25, Turkish President Erdogan said at a meeting with  ambassadors of a number of countries that "after the end of the  occupation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the South Caucasus, conditions have  been created for a long-term peace, and if Armenia uses this chance,  Ankara will take the necessary steps." "The region needs a  constructive approach. And even if there are disagreements, it is  necessary to develop neighborly relations on the basis of respect for  territorial integrity and sovereignty. I wish success to the new  government of Armenia, which has declared its readiness to move in  this direction," Erdogan told Turkish journalists on August 29.

Already on August 27, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in the  context of the agenda for establishing peace in the region, noted the  following: "There have been certain public positive signals from  Turkey. We will evaluate those signals and respond to those signals  with a positive signal."

"In general, the statements of Turkish President Erdogan and Armenian  Prime Minister Pashinyan are of significant interest and are quite  remarkable. In particular, due to the fact that the Armenian-Turkish  developments simply cannot but directly related to the processes  around Nagorno-Karabakh. Attempts at mutual signals from Ankara and  Yerevan are obvious. However, the contours of the future development  of relations are not yet visible, "he said.

In particular, according to the analyst, it is unclear whether this  is a systematic, comprehensive settlement of relations between  Yerevan and Ankara, right up to the establishment of diplomatic  relations with all accompanying steps. He also admitted that Armenia  and Turkey intend to limit themselves to reducing to a common  denominator exclusively interests in terms of communications.

In any case, the weakness of the Armenian and Turkish signals,  according to Lukyanov, leaves room for many questions, in fact,  regarding the future of relations between the two countries. In this  light, in his opinion, the presence of a number of unresolved issues  and problems in the processes around Nagorno- Karabakh does not help  to clarify the situation. "Russia, against this background, has  foreign policy, long- term priorities and plans for Karabakh and the  region as a whole. Priority in all this is given to the  implementation of the points of the two trilateral statements of  November 9 and January 11, 2020 and 2021. And the preservation of its  own influence in the South Caucasus is linked to the coordination of  policy with Turkey. Of course, In case of a corresponding situation  and challenges, these plans are also subject to revision," he  stressed.

According to Lukyanov's forecasts, it is impossible in any case to  resolve the existing contradictions and issues on the Karabakh case  in the short term and then move on to the settlement of  Armenian-Turkish relations, and then to unblock communications. In  the analyst's view, resolving issues and problems of this magnitude  will require extensive resources from all stakeholders in all senses  and meanings of the word.