Forecast: There will be no peace. Recognition of Artsakh`s  independence by Armenia- that`s the key to success

ArmInfo. Taking into account the current mood of the military- political leadership of Azerbaijan, today we can safely forecast that there is no reason to expect the  establishment of peace between our countries. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by  head of the International Center for Human  Development Tevan Poghosyan.

" There can be no peace based on the desire of only one side of the  conflict, in this case Armenia. And the other side does not want to  stop at what it has seized, and continues to demand Syunik, Sevan and  Yerevan.  And its older brother behaves in a very similar way,  continuing to put its own preconditions for Armenia.  Moreover, the  contradictions are by no means limited to bilateral contradictions.   There are contradictions with other players interested in the region,  "he stressed.

Thus, noting the significant contradictions in the ideas of the peace  of Armenia and Azerbaijan, the expert is convinced that all  conversations and discussions from Baku about the need to establish a  lasting peace are manipulative in nature. Poghosyan is convinced that  in fact Armenia should prepare not for peace, but for war. Since it  is a new war that is the most plausible scenario.

"In the current conditions, the only way that allows us to continue  to exist in this region as an independent state is the restoration of  our homeland and a peaceful life after victory. We have no  alternative; our enemies just do not want peace. That is why Armenia  needs to change the logic of its own behavior, turn situation in  order to achieve more favorable conditions in the upcoming  negotiations with Azerbaijan, "he said.  

Poghosyan believes that the recognition of the independence of  Artsakh by Armenia is the key to such changes. In his opinion, with  such an act, Yerevan will once and for all sweep aside the stuck  gagged refrain of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairing countries, and  first of all Azerbaijan itself, that "even Armenia does not recognize  Artsakh." This, in his opinion, can be done both on the basis of the  international principle of the "right of peoples to  self-determination", and through the application of another principle  of international law - remedial secession - "secession for the sake  of salvation." After that, Baku, according to his forecasts, will  have no choice but to sit at the negotiating table with Stepanakert.