Historian: Large-scale presence in the South Caucasus is Ankara`s  illusion 

ArmInfo.A large-scale Turkish presence in the South Caucasus is possible only in the illusions of Ankara. Doctor of Historical Sciences Hayk Demoyan expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Based on its geopolitical calculations in the short term, Russia,  following the results of last year's war in Artsakh, allowed Turkey  to ensure a limited presence in our region. Limited, since ensuring a  large-scale Turkish presence in no way proceeds from Moscow's  geopolitical interests. While Ankara succumbed to the illusion and  perceived its limited military presence in Aghdam as evidence that it  is now in the game, "he stressed.  In reality, the joint monitoring  center, in Demoyan's opinion, is just a small Russian instrument to  achieve a Turkish goodwill, which Moscow has quite successfully  succeeded. Nevertheless, the latest Kiev statements by Turkish  Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu on the "Crimean Platform" in  support of the territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to his  estimates, indicate that the Turks are not particularly happy about  their purchase.

Understanding perfectly well that Aghdam is only a small consolation  provided to them by Moscow, the Turks, according to the historian's  forecasts, in any case and under any scenarios, will continue to  pursue their own policy without looking back at Russia. Including in  the South Caucasus. And here, in his opinion, it is necessary to take  into account one more important factor. A factor of pressure from the  West, in particular the United States, on Turkey.

In this light, he considers it necessary to take into account the  fact of Turkey's membership in NATO. And also the fact that Turkey is  one of the most important members of the Alliance, which, by the way,  has never expressed intentions to leave its ranks. And, what is  extremely important, it cannot do this on the basis of a number of  objective geopolitical realities. Demoyan is convinced that  withdrawal from NATO can become a reality only as a result of the  madness of the Turkish leadership.

"Considering the relations between Moscow and Ankara in a broad  context, it becomes clear that they have never been particularly  warm. There was only a successful decision of the Turkish leadership,  conditioned by the desire to seize the right moment. Competing and  warring empires a priori cannot have long-term warm relations. And  taking into account Turkey's membership in NATO, Russia must always  bear in mind that it has very little chances of winning the  confrontation with Turkey under such pressure, "he summed up.