Thursday, August 12 2021 15:23

ArmInfo. Without a doubt, the realities formed as a result of the 44- day war allow us today to record a significant expansion of the role of France in Armenia and in the processes around Armenia. Associate expert of the Armenian Institute of International and Security Affairs Ruben Mehrabyan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

"At the same time, it is important to note the absence of any grounds in favor of the assertions that Paris is doing this at Moscow's expense. Moreover, there are no signs that France's policy towards Armenia is focused on squeezing Russia out of the South Caucasus, in general, and forming a confrontation with the Russian Federation. On  the basis of a number of factors, statements by French politicians and diplomats, etc., it seems possible to state that today Paris is in search of opportunities to balance its own interests with those of Moscow. And it is actively trying to reach the coexistence of its  approaches to Armenia with the regional policy of the Russian Federation, "he noted.

According to the expert, such conclusions can be drawn from a direct relationship between the prospect of resuming the negotiation process on the settlement of the Artsakh problem within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmanship and the preservation of solidarity on this issue between Moscow on one side and Washington and Paris on the other. And this is despite all the contradictions and confrontational scenarios between them in other geopolitical arenas of the world. Not to mention civilizational problems, inconsistencies and contradictions.

In this light, in his opinion, the Armenian public should refrain from forms of French aid to Armenia that are far from reality. And in politics from calculations of the projection of regional geopolitical realities from the possibility of a clash between Russia and the  West. In Mehrabyan's opinion, due to the above- mentioned reasons, the most powerful military potential of France and the ability to provide military assistance to various countries of the world in the case of Armenia leave room only for extremely restrained optimism. This is further reinforced by the unilateral and critical dependence  of Armenia on Russian arms supplies that has formed over the past decades. Nevertheless, the decisive role of France in the EU's decision to provide Armenia with 2.6 billion euros with the actual goal of increasing the military-political strength of Yerevan, in the expert's opinion, is an unequivocal evidence of the restart of the Caucasian policy of Paris and Brussels. And in the conditions of the same critical dependence of Armenia on Russia, including in the economic field, these 2.6 billion euros acquire strategic importance in the context of Armenia's security and defense capability.

"So far, Moscow has not reacted in any way to these intentions of Brussels. Which in no way means their painless acceptance by the Kremlin. It is quite possible that Russia will oppose the new prospects and forms of the Armenian-French relations. What Moscow has done and is doing traditionally. It is also necessary to remember that Moscow has significant levers of influence both on the situation on the border with Azerbaijan and on the situation, in fact, within Armenia. All these levers and factors, if necessary, may well be involved. In this light, the decisive factor in determining the forthcoming position of the Kremlin seems to be the content of the upcoming agreements between the three co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group on the future of our region, "Mehrabyan summed up.