Arminfo.info


 Tuesday, July 27 2021 11:43
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Moscow will not be able to keep the situation in a state of controlled uncertainty indefinitely

Forecast: Moscow will not be able to keep the situation in a state of controlled uncertainty indefinitely

ArmInfo.After documenting the results of the 44-day war, during the entire post-war period, Moscow played a double game within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group.   Ruben Mehrabyan - expert at the Armenian Institute of International  and Security Affairs (AIISA) expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"In other words, Russia has acted and is acting within the framework  of the MG, but, at the same time, it tries to bypass it at the first  available opportunity. And, no doubt, it will continue to operate  within the framework of this logic in the future. Meanwhile, it is in  this format, and no other, that the other two co- chairing countries  unequivocally emphasize the need to continue the negotiation process  to achieve a resolution of the issue of Artsakh's status, "he  stressed.

Another diplomatic variation performed by Moscow, the expert  considers periodic attempts to expropriate ideas and agreements  within the framework of the Minsk Group in order to implement them on  its own platforms. Among such steps by Moscow, Mehrabyan voiced the  organization of a meeting between the leadrers of Armenia and  Azerbaijan in St. Petersburg,  and this is when co-chairs had already  organized a similar meeting, with same composition and content in  Vienna.

The expert emphasized that Russia had no interest in achieving a  final, comprehensive settlement of the conflict around Artsakh, even  if it is discussed on its own platform within the framework of its  own agenda.  First of all, because of the understanding and clear  awareness of their own withdrawal from the region in the event of a  final settlement of the conflict.

"So, Moscow clearly sees all these prospects, respectively, they are  aware of the possible consequences.  And as a result, they continue  to implement the political line of the last decades. But we must do  everything possible in order to create realities, create  circumstances that will force Russia to find itself face to face with  a new geopolitical reality. The whole issue today rests on this need,  since this is what the national interests of Armenia require, "he  stressed.  

According to Mehrabyan's forecasts, in any case, Moscow  will not be able to keep the situation in a state of controlled  uncertainty indefinitely. Accordingly, sooner or later it will have  to its own priorities in one direction or another. And the fact that  Russia has already crossed all possible and impossible red lines in  the region, primarily in relations with Armenia, according to his  forecasts, only underlines the inevitability of such a scenario.

"What does Russia offer us today? Leave the issue of status in limbo  for an indefinite future. It does not want to solve it, offering in  return to do anything but determine the status. As a result, our  prisoners of war are still in Azerbaijan, the roads are not open, and  Aliyev encroaches on Armenian territory by shooting in Yeraskh. And  we see that in response Russia prefers either to remain silent or to  talk about "border incidents" caused by the absence of delimitation.  We understand that all this cannot and will not last long, "  Mehrabyan summed up.

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