ArmInfo. The current situation in the South Caucasus has been forming since the last years of the existence of the USSR. And throughout this period, at its various stages, in particular, after the failure of Mikheil Saakashvili's military adventure in South Ossetia in 2008, the integration of the region with the Euro-Atlantic community continued to be the main goal of the US regional policy.
Alexander Krylov, Chief Researcher at the Center for Development and Modernization of the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dr. of Science (History) expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo
"Against this background, the situation contributing to a radical revision of Armenia's foreign policy in favor of NATO could only be the result of the normalization of relations between Yerevan and Baku and Ankara. Nevertheless, the result of the non-public work of the United States - the Zurich Protocols obviously did not lead to the planned outcome. The reason is the lack of understanding by American strategists on the Caucasus of the peculiarities of interethnic relations and the role of history in determining public sentiments, in Armenia as well as in Azerbaijan and Turkey, "he stressed.
As a result, according to the Russian expert, it was the United States, with the aim of the long-desired reformatting of the South Caucasus, that initiated the breakdown of the military-political balance of forces in the region and the status quo of 1994, destabilizing the situation in the Karabakh conflict zone. And the unfavorable outcome of the 44-day war for Artsakh and Armenia was predetermined by the overwhelming military-political, information-propaganda advantage achieved by Baku with the support of Ankara.
Krylov, referring to the opinion of Armenian and Russian experts and politicians, recalled that the main goal of the United States and Britain, which was on the catch-up, was not only the final and quick defeat of the Armenian army and the complete capture of Artsakh. The plan was developed with the prospect of a change of power in Armenia in the wake of popular indignation. That would be accompanied by an accusation against Russia of treason and a mandatory requirement for the withdrawal of the 102nd Russian base from Gyumri.
Nevertheless, the initiators of this scenario, according to Krylov's estimates, failed to achieve their goal primarily due to the stubborn resistance of the Armenian military in Artsakh, which significantly delayed the hostilities, in fact, disrupting the Azerbaijani blitzkrieg. In his opinion, this gave Russia time to achieve a cessation of hostilities and the formation of a trilateral dialogue with the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Thanks to this, Yerevan managed to avoid the implementation of the Georgian and Ukrainian scenarios and with the support of Moscow retain independence in decision-making.
"It is necessary to understand that the deployment of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh today is a guarantor of the security of its inhabitants. And it contributes to the successful economic development of the entire South Caucasus. We are talking about unblocking borders, building new transport corridors, etc. It is economic cooperation that can give a start to the process of increasing the level of trust in solving the most painful problems in the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, "he stressed.
At the same time, Krylov noted that the prospects for the development of the region today are also becoming unpredictable due to global and often contradictory regional factors. In this light, the expert notes that with an increase in the degree of tension in international relations in general and in relations between Russia and the United States in particular, it will become even more difficult to stabilize the situation in the South Caucasus. Moreover, such a scenario, according to his forecasts, is fraught with a high probability of new wars in the region