Analyst: Putin understands perfectly well that the more he puts  pressure on Armenia, the more EU is present in Armenia 

ArmInfo. Russia is unable to build up excessive pressure on Armenia due to the formation of an alternative proposal from the European Union in recent months. A  similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by the head of the Armenian  Institute of International and Security Affairs Stepan Safaryan.

"We are talking about the package of proposals of the EU to Armenia  and its investments in our country in the amount of 2.6 billion  euros. It is quite possible that with these amounts all the problems  of our country cannot be solved, however, it is obvious that these  investments are a lifeline, a parachute for us. And I absolutely do  not think that having invested such an amount in Armenia, in  particular, in Syunik, Europe will silently watch the corridor games  of Putin, Erdogan and Aliyev in this very Syunik. It is obvious that  investments of this scale are of a strategic nature. . Putin, in  turn, understands perfectly well that the more he puts pressure on  Armenia, the more the presence of the European Union increases in  Armenia, "he stressed.

It was precisely this state of affairs, according to Safaryan's  estimates, that, having arrived in Moscow to the accompaniment of the  shelling of Yeraskh, Ilham Aliyev, in fact, left there with nothing.  Meanwhile, heating up Yeraskh, he hoped to make it clear to Putin  that in response to the activation of the  Nakhichevan-Yerevan-Tbilisi-Baku-Derbent communication line, he  expects his demands to be fulfilled.  And besides the unwillingness  to put pressure on Armenia due to the emergence of the EU there, this  situation is due to the fact that not all of Baku's proposals  correspond to Moscow's interests.

Moscow, according to the analyst, also sees a terrifying rise in  discontent towards Russia in Armenia, watching the collapse of the  long-standing myth it created about ensuring Armenia's security  within the framework of the CSTO membership. In this context,  according to his estimates, it becomes obvious that Russia is unable  to resolve the task of maintaining a strategic balance. Meanwhile, by  heating Eraskh alone, it is impossible to achieve the operation of  the railways, which leads to the appearance of cracks in the  processes that started on November 9 and January 11, 2020 and 2021.

"As a result of the above, Russia found itself in a very difficult  situation. A situation in which continuing to satisfy Aliyev's  appetites would mean for Moscow, if not the final loss of Armenia,  then at least the continuation of the strengthening of the collective  West in Armenia. Realizing this, Putin today is striving to keep on a  short leash both Armenia and Azerbaijan. And it is precisely this  strategic balance that has developed in recent months that does not  allow it to disrupt the now new status quo, formed as a result of the  violation of the previous one. Moscow understands that another  violation of balance will threaten its achievements reflected in the  statement dated November 9. As a result, the current situation is  characterized by uncertainty. And Russia's unilateral overcoming will  mean for it the destruction of its own strategy in the South  Caucasus, "Safaryan summed up.