ArmInfo. In view of a new, very dangerous situation maturing in Afghanistan, Moscow is today trying to adjust its policy in the South Caucasus, trying to adapt to the next new geopolitical realities. The head of scientific research institute , orientalist Alexei Malashenko expressed a similar opinion.
"Obviously, today Russia desperately needs stability in the South Caucasus. Not least of all this is due to the need to redirect part of diplomatic and other efforts to the problems of Central Asian countries. We understand that they will inevitably arise in the event of the final transfer of power in Afghanistan into the hands of the Taliban," he remarked.
At the same time, Malashenko does not see any special threats to the Central Asian countries in the Taliban offensive in Afghanistan. Primarily due to the Taliban's lack of military objectives in the countries of Central Asia. He assesses the fears of the Taliban entering the CSTO borders as grossly exaggerated, believing that Russia should not expect danger through Central Asia.
In this light, the orientalist noted the excellent relations between Moscow and the Taliban, who only recently visited Moscow. According to him, the perception of the Taliban as an ideologically tough movement is hopelessly outdated and does not correspond well to the current state of affairs. In this light, Malashenko, with the final victory of the Taliban, predicts the creation of an Islamic state in Afghanistan, which will be recognized by everyone, simply because no one needs its aggression, including the pragmatic Taliban themselves.
In light of the absence of an external threat to Central Asia from the Taliban, theoretically in Tajikistan or elsewhere, according to his forecasts, a social protest in a religious form is possible as a result of socio- economic upheavals. In this context, Moscow, according to Malashenko's estimates, will now play out the CSTO theme on the propaganda front, taking into account the request of Tajik President Emomali Rahmon for help at the border.
Returning to Caucasian affairs, Malashenko described the current policy of Russia in this direction as aimed at maintaining parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is primarily due to the unwillingness to harm the implementation of the two post-war trilateral statements, especially against the background of the West's attempts to reduce them to zero and initiate a new process.
"Today we see in action a large policy in the South Caucasus, consisting of many combinations. Russia perfectly sees the presence of a very specific interest of the EU in this region. It is possible that at this stage this interest may not contradict the interests of Russia, since the same reanimation of the OSCE MG can really stabilize the situation in the region. In which Moscow, as I noted above, is today extremely interested. In this light, at this stage, Russia will work and cooperate with all parties and interested sides. The future of the region looks rather unpredictable, but for us new problems are absolutely unnecessary here, "the Russian expert summed up.