Friday, July 23 2021 14:46

ArmInfo. In view of a new, very dangerous situation maturing in Afghanistan, Moscow is today trying to adjust its policy in the South Caucasus, trying to adapt to the  next new geopolitical realities. The head of scientific research  institute , orientalist Alexei Malashenko  expressed a similar opinion.

"Obviously, today Russia desperately needs stability in the South  Caucasus. Not least of all this is due to the need to redirect part  of diplomatic and other efforts to the problems of Central Asian  countries. We understand that they will inevitably arise in the event  of the final transfer of power in Afghanistan into the hands of the  Taliban," he remarked.

At the same time, Malashenko does not see any special threats to the  Central Asian countries in the Taliban offensive in Afghanistan.  Primarily due to the Taliban's lack of military objectives in the  countries of Central Asia. He assesses the fears of the Taliban  entering the CSTO borders as grossly exaggerated, believing that  Russia should not expect danger through Central Asia.

In this light, the orientalist noted the excellent relations between  Moscow and the Taliban, who only recently visited Moscow. According  to him, the perception of the Taliban as an ideologically tough  movement is hopelessly outdated and does not correspond well to the  current state of affairs. In this light, Malashenko, with the final  victory of the Taliban, predicts the creation of an Islamic state in  Afghanistan, which will be recognized by everyone, simply because no  one needs its aggression, including the pragmatic Taliban themselves.

In light of the absence of an external threat to Central Asia from  the Taliban, theoretically in Tajikistan or elsewhere, according to  his forecasts, a social protest in a religious form is possible as a  result of socio- economic upheavals. In this context, Moscow,  according to Malashenko's estimates, will now play out the CSTO theme  on the propaganda front, taking into account the request of Tajik  President Emomali Rahmon for help at the border.

Returning to Caucasian affairs, Malashenko described the current  policy of Russia in this direction as aimed at maintaining parity  between Armenia and Azerbaijan. This is primarily due to the  unwillingness to harm the implementation of the two post-war  trilateral statements, especially against the background of the  West's attempts to reduce them to zero and initiate a new process.

"Today we see in action a large policy in the South Caucasus,  consisting of many combinations. Russia perfectly sees the presence  of a very specific interest of the EU in this region. It is possible  that at this stage this interest may not contradict the interests of  Russia, since the same reanimation of the OSCE MG can really  stabilize the situation in the region. In which Moscow, as I noted  above, is today extremely interested. In this light, at this stage,  Russia will work and cooperate with all parties and interested sides.   The future of the region looks rather unpredictable, but for us new  problems are absolutely unnecessary here, "the Russian expert summed  up.