Thursday, July 15 2021 12:11

ArmInfo.Further impulses between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be conditioned by the  existence or absence of  resources to exert pressure on each other, as well as  on external players interested in the region. Director of the  Caucasus Institute Alexander Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion  to ArmInfo.

"It is necessary to understand that the interests of Armenia and  Russia do not coincide in all issues as of today. For example, Moscow  is completely indifferent to whether the Lake Sev Lich is controlled  by Armenia or Azerbaijan. Russia is only interested in stability on  the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, but it is not at all  interested in what line this border will be drawn. Impulses around  the borders, their stability and communication issues will continue  with the mediation and pressure of Moscow, "he stressed.

In this light, the political scientist suggested that Armenia's  interests in defining border lines can be taken into account only if  Yerevan has resources to exert pressure. However, given that these  resources are only at the disposal of Baku today, there is no reason  to expect a serious retreat of Azerbaijanis in Gegharkunik and  Syunik. Iskandaryan stressed Armenia's lack of forces capable of  forcing Azerbaijan to such a retreat.

Against this background, according to the political scientist, Russia  is generally interested in maintaining stability on the  Armenian-Azerbaijani border in light of the interest in unblocking  communications in the region. According to Iskandaryan, Russia does  not need a new war. Accordingly, Moscow is negotiating to take  responsibility for ensuring security on the border between Armenia  and Azerbaijan.

"These negotiations, these actions of Russia are being conducted,  let's say, not very rapidly. However, it is already clear that Moscow  has agreed to take upon itself the solution of security problems on  the border with Azerbaijan. And judging by the fact that the  interests of Russia and Armenia in this direction coincide, in all  likelihood, this process will be brought to its logical conclusion,  "he said.

Commenting on the prospects for the settlement of the conflict around  Artsakh, in particular, the determination of its status, Iskandaryan  stressed that he does not expect serious progress in this direction  in the foreseeable future. In this light, he noted that the  tripartite statement of November 9 is not about the settlement of the  conflict, but just a ceasefire. Thus, the problem is still far from  being solved, primarily due to Baku's unwillingness to discuss  options for its resolution. At the same time, according to the  forecasts of the political scientist, while continuing to hold a part  of the Armenian prisoners of war as hostages, Baku will bargain for  everything that is possible, putting forward more and more demands on  Yerevan.