ArmInfo. There are many, as a rule, contradictory geopolitical factors, both global and regional, affecting the process of resolving problems in Armenia's relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which make the future of the South Caucasus significantly unpredictable. Alexander Krylov, Dr. Sci. (Hist.), Principal Researcher, Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO (Moscow), President of the Society of Caucasus Studies, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Today, the post-war situation in the region is characterized by the strengthening of Azerbaijan and a sharp increase in Turkish influence. At the same time, the likelihood of unleashing new conflicts and hostilities in the South Caucasus is by is not unlikely. I personally associate it with tensions in Russia-West relations. I think its growth is will significant complicate the process of stabilizing the situation in the region," he stressed.
In the expert's opinion, in such conditions, the future of the South Caucasus depends on international politics and the interests of the main external players, as well as, of course, from the desire of the leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan to seek ways of peaceful, regional development. The only alternative is new conflicts and wars, which, according to his forecasts, will lead to a new round of migration from all countries of the region.
Noting the opposite nature of the geopolitical vectors of Armenia, Georgia and Azerbaijan, Krylov stressed Tbilisi's readiness to pay for integration into NATO with a part of Georgia's sovereignty. The ongoing integration of Azerbaijan with Turkey, in his opinion, raises questions. In particular, regarding the prospects for Azerbaijan's absorption by Turkey with all the attendant consequences for the region.
Against this background, the ongoing course of Yerevan to deepen the strategic alliance with Moscow and the development of relations with the collective West after last year's war, in Krylov's opinion, requires adjustments. Especially in light of the continuing tension on the border with Azerbaijan. In such conditions, the trilateral statement of November 9, 2020, according to his forecasts, is capable of stabilizing the situation only for a short period, after which the region will be covered by another war, with even more unpredictable consequences.
According to the expert, Moscow continues to link the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the solution of socio-economic problems, unblocking communications in the conflict region. And according to Krylov, it is the successful implementation of these socio-economic projects that is beneficial to everyone and can open new horizons for the entire South Caucasus.
"However, on this path there is the problem of recognizing the fact of the Armenian Genocide and the problem of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. In these two problems, Yerevan on the one hand and Ankara and Baku, on the other hand, have mutually exclusive approaches. Yerevan's approach is shared by the countries co-chairing the OSCE Minsk Group. All this in aggregate adds additional uncertainty to the prospects for the development of peace in the South Caucasus," Krylov summed up.