Forecast: The future of the South Caucasus is still fraught with  unpredictability

ArmInfo. There are many, as a rule, contradictory geopolitical factors, both global and regional, affecting the process of resolving problems in Armenia's relations  with Azerbaijan and Turkey, which make the future of the South  Caucasus significantly unpredictable.  Alexander Krylov, Dr. Sci.  (Hist.), Principal Researcher, Center for Post-Soviet Studies, IMEMO  (Moscow), President of the Society of Caucasus Studies, expressed a  similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Today, the post-war situation in the region is characterized by the  strengthening of Azerbaijan and a sharp increase in Turkish  influence. At the same time, the likelihood of unleashing new  conflicts and hostilities in the South Caucasus is by is not  unlikely. I personally associate it with tensions in Russia-West  relations. I think its growth is will significant complicate the  process of stabilizing the situation in the region," he stressed.  

In the expert's opinion, in such conditions, the future of the South  Caucasus depends on international politics and the interests of the  main external players, as well as, of course, from the desire of the  leaderships of Armenia and Azerbaijan to seek ways of peaceful,  regional development. The only alternative is new conflicts and wars,  which, according to his forecasts, will lead to a new round of  migration from all countries of the region.

Noting the opposite nature of the geopolitical vectors of Armenia,  Georgia and Azerbaijan, Krylov stressed Tbilisi's readiness to pay  for integration into NATO with a part of Georgia's sovereignty. The  ongoing integration of Azerbaijan with Turkey, in his opinion, raises  questions. In particular, regarding the prospects for Azerbaijan's  absorption by Turkey with all the attendant consequences for the  region.

Against this background, the ongoing course of Yerevan to deepen the  strategic alliance with Moscow and the development of relations with  the collective West after last year's war, in Krylov's opinion,  requires adjustments. Especially in light of the continuing tension  on the border with Azerbaijan. In such conditions, the trilateral  statement of November 9, 2020, according to his forecasts, is capable  of stabilizing the situation only for a short period, after which the  region will be covered by another war, with even more unpredictable  consequences.

According to the expert, Moscow continues to link the normalization  of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with the solution of  socio-economic problems, unblocking communications in the conflict  region. And according to Krylov, it is the successful implementation  of these socio-economic projects that is beneficial to everyone and  can open new horizons for the entire South Caucasus.

"However, on this path there is the problem of recognizing the fact  of the Armenian Genocide and the problem of the status of  Nagorno-Karabakh. In these two problems, Yerevan on the one hand and  Ankara and Baku, on the other hand, have mutually exclusive  approaches. Yerevan's approach is shared by the countries co-chairing  the OSCE Minsk Group. All this in aggregate adds additional  uncertainty to the prospects for the development of peace in the  South Caucasus," Krylov summed up.