ArmInfo. If on the western borders of the Russian Federation a cordon sanitaire and the Intermarium project of the 21st century (Visegrad Four) are being developed, then in the south, Turkey takes over the transformation of the Turkic Council into an operating platform for NATO. Hrachya Arzumanyan, a well-known political scientist, the director of the "Ashkhar" Center for Strategic Studies, the former adviser to Artsakh Foreign Minister, expressed this opinion on his Facebook page.
According to him, this makes it possible to project the power of the West into Central Asia and the territory of the Russian Federation in order to restrain China. In general, in his opinion, this is a very logical strategy of the West / NATO.
Arzumanyan stressed that the last Russian point, that could impede the implementation of such a strategy was Armenia, which broke the arc in the Caucasus, but after Russia gave Artsakh to Turkey and "instantly" received the "Shusha" Declaration and the exercises already on its border, it lost all its leverages. And all they can do is to puff out their cheeks, like "we are closely monitoring the situation", and urgently summon Nikol Pashinyan to Moscow.
But from a strategic point of view, the analyst is convinced, the game has already been played, and the West has won, and all without a direct military presence. they solved the problem with the help of the President of the Russian Federation, supported by the Turkish armed forces.
However, at the same time, the statement of the Russian Federation that the relationship with Turkey as a NATO country can be considered an example of the possibility of cooperation with the alliance cannot be commented on. The West will further form a military-political alliance between Turkey, Azerbaijan and the Central Asian states, allowing NATO to operate in the Caucasus and Central Asia through the direct military presence of Turkey. According to Arzumanyan, the "Afghan avalanche", including refugees, will be carefully sent to Central Asia and the vastness of the Russian Federation, and there is nothing to stop it. Pakistan has already said it will close its borders to refugees if the Taliban take over in Afghanistan. Perhaps China can fill the security vacuum and has already announced its intention to do so. But within the framework of the new US strategy for Central Asia, this region also includes Afghanistan. It turns out - a clash of Chinese and American / Western geostrategy and the Great Game of the 21st century around the assets of the USSR, but without the participation of the Russian Federation.
However, for Armenia and Georgia in this case, what is relevant is the role the West envisages for these countries. There can be two scenarios: either joining NATO under the patronage of Turkey through the creation of a platform [5 + 3] (five post-Soviet states of Central Asia + three states of the South Caucasus), which has already been announced in Turkey, or, nevertheless, direct subordination without <mediation > of Turkey? According to the analyst, these are important topics that require deep development.
Meanwhile, in his commentary, the head of the Pro-European Party of Armenia, Tigran Khzmalyan, expressed his absolute disagreement with Arzumanyan with his assessment of Turkey's role as the `` Western patron '' of Armenia and Georgia. <In my opinion, the West is ''framing'' Erdogan by handing him such a bomb with an explosive mechanism as Afghanistan and the Turkic countries of Central Asia. Thus, Turkey is opposed to China, with easily calculated consequences for Turkey. Moreover, the West will not help Erdogan. Armenia and Georgia will enter NATO without any demand from Turkey, just by the North- South logic, which Turkey and Russia cannot interfere with their unfulfilled corridor through Meghri, " Khzmalyan notes.