Georgian expert: Pashinyan`s desire for complementarity does not  coincide with his capabilities

ArmInfo.The current security architecture in the South Caucasus looks rather curious given that it is in the phase of maintaining a dynamic balance. An expert of the  Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis, political scientist Gela  Vasadze expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

 "Armenia and Azerbaijan today are countries, on which, in principle, it's impossible to  attack. Armenia's security is ensured by an agreement with the CSTO,  Azerbaijan's security is a military-political alliance with Turkey.  Thus, Georgia remains the only country in the region devoid of a  strategic ally. However, the latter is defended by the United States,  of course, not through the use or threat of the use of military  force, "he stressed.

The presence of such a security architecture, according to the  expert, in no way excludes the possibility of a new round of military  tension in the region, however, it leaves its countries with  opportunities for other cooperation. Including a trilateral one.

The current geopolitical situation, in his opinion, continues to  condition Russia as the only guarantor of Armenia's security. The  same cannot be said about Azerbaijan, in which Moscow is gradually  losing its political influence. At the same time, according to  Vasadze, it is too early to talk about the final ousting of Russia  from Azerbaijan.

In addition to Russia and Turkey, which has played an important role  in Azerbaijan for two decades, in this country, according to the  expert, there is another serious player interested in its security -  Israel. First of all, due to the fact that Israel and Azerbaijan have  a common enemy in the person of Iran. In this context, according to  Vasadze, the situation in Georgia is again more complicated. But in  general, the country in the process of ensuring security relies on  military-technical partnership with almost all NATO member countries.

Commenting on the geopolitical prospects of the South Caucasus and  its countries separately, the Georgian expert noted that the gradual  ousting of Russia from Azerbaijan does not imply a parallel process  in neighboring Armenia. And, at least in the near future, this is  impossible, since the incumbent Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol  Pashinyan is deprived of real opportunities to pursue at least a  complementary policy. "We, of course, understand that Pashinyan has a  great desire to pursue a complementary policy. But in this particular  case, we also understand that these desires do not coincide with the  available opportunities. On the example of the recent visit of the  Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Austria to Yerevan, we see  that the EU and the US continue to work with the Pashinyan  administration. But the same situation in Syunik today dictates to  Yerevan the deployment of Russian, not NATO, peacekeepers in this  region. So far, this is a decisive factor, which cannot be ignored, "  Vasadze concluded.