ArmInfo.The current security architecture in the South Caucasus looks rather curious given that it is in the phase of maintaining a dynamic balance. An expert of the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis, political scientist Gela Vasadze expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"Armenia and Azerbaijan today are countries, on which, in principle, it's impossible to attack. Armenia's security is ensured by an agreement with the CSTO, Azerbaijan's security is a military-political alliance with Turkey. Thus, Georgia remains the only country in the region devoid of a strategic ally. However, the latter is defended by the United States, of course, not through the use or threat of the use of military force, "he stressed.
The presence of such a security architecture, according to the expert, in no way excludes the possibility of a new round of military tension in the region, however, it leaves its countries with opportunities for other cooperation. Including a trilateral one.
The current geopolitical situation, in his opinion, continues to condition Russia as the only guarantor of Armenia's security. The same cannot be said about Azerbaijan, in which Moscow is gradually losing its political influence. At the same time, according to Vasadze, it is too early to talk about the final ousting of Russia from Azerbaijan.
In addition to Russia and Turkey, which has played an important role in Azerbaijan for two decades, in this country, according to the expert, there is another serious player interested in its security - Israel. First of all, due to the fact that Israel and Azerbaijan have a common enemy in the person of Iran. In this context, according to Vasadze, the situation in Georgia is again more complicated. But in general, the country in the process of ensuring security relies on military-technical partnership with almost all NATO member countries.
Commenting on the geopolitical prospects of the South Caucasus and its countries separately, the Georgian expert noted that the gradual ousting of Russia from Azerbaijan does not imply a parallel process in neighboring Armenia. And, at least in the near future, this is impossible, since the incumbent Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan is deprived of real opportunities to pursue at least a complementary policy. "We, of course, understand that Pashinyan has a great desire to pursue a complementary policy. But in this particular case, we also understand that these desires do not coincide with the available opportunities. On the example of the recent visit of the Foreign Ministers of Poland, Lithuania and Austria to Yerevan, we see that the EU and the US continue to work with the Pashinyan administration. But the same situation in Syunik today dictates to Yerevan the deployment of Russian, not NATO, peacekeepers in this region. So far, this is a decisive factor, which cannot be ignored, " Vasadze concluded.