View from Moscow: In anticipation of Moscow`s support, Yerevan is  negotiating with Baku behind the scenes

ArmInfo.The current situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border seems to be a logical consequence of the Karabakh war lost by Armenia. An expert on the South Caucasus,  Andrei Areshev, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"It is clear that the events on the eastern borders of Armenia in the  period after May 12 are a rather serious problem, including for  Russia. Taking into account the responsibility for the protection of  the Armenian borders. However, the same order to the Armenian  military not to shoot at border violators raises certain questions in  Moscow to those people who are addressing Russia and the CSTO with  calls for intervention.  Security for Yerevan is a key priority  issue, which it cannot solve without trusting interaction with  Moscow. In this light, the restoration of trusting ties that existed  in the 2000s between Armenia and Russia, primarily in the security  sector, seems to have no alternative, "he stressed.

Against this background, Russian priorities in the region, according  to Areshev, are by no means limited to Armenia. As an ally of Armenia  in the CSTO, Russia is the co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group. And it  is quite a serious partner for Azerbaijan. Noting the significant  decline in Russian influence in Azerbaijan as a fact, the expert  attributed this fact to the constant deepening of the agenda of  relations between Baku and Ankara. And the "Shusha Declaration"  signed by Erdogan and Aliyev is the latest evidence of this.

According to the expert, the Caucasian policy and the Armenian agenda  are undoubtedly important in the foreign policy of Russia, but not  the main one. And for the Armenian agenda to come to the fore on the  agenda of Moscow, Armenia, in his opinion, needs to acquire  subjectivity. "We understand very well that, in anticipation of  Russian intervention in the situation on the Armenian side, Yerevan  is holding behind the scenes certain negotiations with Baku. In this  light, for obvious reasons, Moscow cannot have sufficient reasons for  active intervention in the situation," he stressed.

"I think that the issue can and should be resolved through the  restoration of mutually beneficial trusting relations. The  institutions of the Armenian statehood have lost a lot since 2018,  however, there is certainly a chance of restoring both these  institutions and relations with Russia. It is also possible to return  to negotiations within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, of  course, in worse positions for Armenia than those that existed before  September 27, 2020. There are also chances for the return of Hadrut  and the solution of the Shushi issue. All this is due to the prospect  of a change in the leadership of Armenia following the results of the  upcoming elections. Because the current leadership has left the  solution of the Karabakh issue to the mercy of fate. It simply  stepped back, leaving Karabakh at the disposal of Russia, Turkey and  Azerbaijan, "the Russian expert summed up.