Forecast: New prospects have emerged that can destroy the status quo  formed in the South Caucasus following the 44-day war

ArmInfo. The statement of the NATO Secretary General "on the open doors of the Alliance for Ukraine and Georgia" and the "Declaration of Alliance" signed by Erdogan and Aliyev in the occupied Shushi, which are almost parallel, are two  quite remarkable events in terms of their possible consequences.  Former Artsakh Foreign Minister, Ambassador Extraordinary and  Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to  ArmInfo.

"In this light, in particular, Moscow's reaction to these two events  is quite remarkable. Jens Stoltenberg's statement was received  sharply negatively. It was stated that Ukraine's and Georgia's  membership in NATO would be a pretext for war, although the issue of  the timing of membership remains open. However, the approving  reaction of the Russian media and the expert-analytical community to  the "Shusha Declaration" - the actual absorption of Azerbaijan by a  NATO member Turkey, looks even more remarkable," he stressed.

According to the diplomat, the prospect of the unification of  Azerbaijan and Turkey within the framework of a federal or confederal  state, if certain steps are taken, is quite achievable. And if Ankara  and Baku take this path, it will be impossible to prevent the  successful completion of such a project by political and diplomatic  means. In this light, in his opinion, the position of the same Moscow  regarding the prospects for the transformation of non-aligned  Azerbaijan into the territory of a NATO member state will look very  interesting.

According to the diplomat's forecasts, such prospects are quite  capable of once again turning the now regional status quo, formed as  a result of the 44-day war, upside down. Especially considering that  there are no longer even formal obstacles in the form of territorial  disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the way of such a de facto  merger of Azerbaijan with NATO now. According to Melikyan, Armenia in  this case, first of all, should be interested in the prospects for  the continuation of the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh. 

The latter, according to his forecasts, in this case appears to be  extremely dubious.  "Turkey already has carte blanche to expand its  military, economic and cultural presence eastward, towards the South  Caucasus. In this light, Shushi seems to be a prologue to Turkey's  subsequent absorption of Azerbaijan. And given the open lobbying and  encouragement by Moscow since 2016 to unblock transport  communications between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey through the  process of resolving relations between Yerevan, Baku and Ankara,  which are in deep crisis, Russia largely personally contributed to a  sharp strengthening of Turkish positions, both in Azerbaijan and  throughout the South Caucasus. At the same time, the presence of  mechanisms at Moscow's disposal to control and restrain the growth of  Turkish influence in the region also cannot be ruled out. In any  case, this seems to be the only possible explanation for such a line  of Russia, "the diplomat summed up.