ArmInfo. The statement of the NATO Secretary General "on the open doors of the Alliance for Ukraine and Georgia" and the "Declaration of Alliance" signed by Erdogan and Aliyev in the occupied Shushi, which are almost parallel, are two quite remarkable events in terms of their possible consequences. Former Artsakh Foreign Minister, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"In this light, in particular, Moscow's reaction to these two events is quite remarkable. Jens Stoltenberg's statement was received sharply negatively. It was stated that Ukraine's and Georgia's membership in NATO would be a pretext for war, although the issue of the timing of membership remains open. However, the approving reaction of the Russian media and the expert-analytical community to the "Shusha Declaration" - the actual absorption of Azerbaijan by a NATO member Turkey, looks even more remarkable," he stressed.
According to the diplomat, the prospect of the unification of Azerbaijan and Turkey within the framework of a federal or confederal state, if certain steps are taken, is quite achievable. And if Ankara and Baku take this path, it will be impossible to prevent the successful completion of such a project by political and diplomatic means. In this light, in his opinion, the position of the same Moscow regarding the prospects for the transformation of non-aligned Azerbaijan into the territory of a NATO member state will look very interesting.
According to the diplomat's forecasts, such prospects are quite capable of once again turning the now regional status quo, formed as a result of the 44-day war, upside down. Especially considering that there are no longer even formal obstacles in the form of territorial disputes between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the way of such a de facto merger of Azerbaijan with NATO now. According to Melikyan, Armenia in this case, first of all, should be interested in the prospects for the continuation of the presence of Russian peacekeepers in Artsakh.
The latter, according to his forecasts, in this case appears to be extremely dubious. "Turkey already has carte blanche to expand its military, economic and cultural presence eastward, towards the South Caucasus. In this light, Shushi seems to be a prologue to Turkey's subsequent absorption of Azerbaijan. And given the open lobbying and encouragement by Moscow since 2016 to unblock transport communications between Azerbaijan, Armenia and Turkey through the process of resolving relations between Yerevan, Baku and Ankara, which are in deep crisis, Russia largely personally contributed to a sharp strengthening of Turkish positions, both in Azerbaijan and throughout the South Caucasus. At the same time, the presence of mechanisms at Moscow's disposal to control and restrain the growth of Turkish influence in the region also cannot be ruled out. In any case, this seems to be the only possible explanation for such a line of Russia, "the diplomat summed up.