Forecast: The desire for peaceful land surveying of the borders of  Armenia and Azerbaijan does not at all exclude a tough response from  Russia to the worst-case scenario

ArmInfo. The current escalation on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a mirror image of the lack of diplomatic relations between these countries. The interstate  border has not been demarcated or delimited, and its exact  configuration has yet to be agreed upon. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by a leading researcher at MGIMO of the Russian  Foreign Ministry, editor-in-chief of the International Analytics  magazine Sergei Markedonov.

"The news in all this is the termination of the existence of the"  security belt "around the unrecognized NKR as a result of a joint  statement on the cessation of hostilities on November 10, 2020. And  as a consequence, the main issue in the settlement of the  long-standing interstate confrontation was not the discussion of the  status of Karabakh, but the provision of security on the newly  emerged dividing line, "he stressed.

The latter, according to the analyst, raises new, very difficult  questions. In particular, what maps and political geography to take  as a basis in the process of defining boundaries. Complicating the  situation, in his opinion, is not only the maximalism of Yerevan and  Baku, but also the history of the collapse of the USSR in a  revolutionary way, without clear legal criteria and outside strict  legal formulas. The latter, among other things, raises another  question - about the enclaves that existed during the unified USSR.  

Real politik, according to Markedonov, today is largely determined by  Baku's confidence in its own strength, backed up by Ankara. And  striving to consolidate its success, Azerbaijan, first of all, is  trying to push the issue of Karabakh's status into the dialogue  around the peaceful settlement of the conflict to the background. By  highlighting the problems of demarcation and delimitation between  Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, no one has yet canceled the  issue of the status of Karabakh spelled out in the basic principles.   Commenting on the current role of Russia in these processes, the  analyst stressed that in Armenia it causes a certain skepticism. At  the same time, recalling that the unilateral position of the Russian  Federation will immediately reveal the critics of its peacekeeping  mission in Karabakh, right up to demands for its immediate  termination. In this light, he assesses the balancing of Moscow in  the current conditions as a severe political necessity, which, at the  very least, will be preserved until a special occasion. However, the  desire for peaceful land surveying of the borders of Armenia and  Azerbaijan, in his opinion, does not exclude a tough response from  Russia in the event of the worst-case scenario.

"Yes, we see that opinion polls in Armenia have actually equalized  the sympathies of Armenians towards France and Russia. However,  France has not yet offered Armenia anything new that would go beyond  the" basic principles. " Meanwhile, Russia today is present in the  conflict region really and quite tangibly as a peacemaker, as a  military ally of Armenia and as an important partner of Azerbaijan.  And, unlike Turkey, it does not take a unilateral position, "he  stressed. 

In this light, Markedonov assesses the demarcation of the borders  between Armenia and Azerbaijan as one of the tasks on the way of  realizing the most important goal of Russia to prevent a new war in  the Transcaucasus. Thus, according to his forecasts, in order to  achieve an optimal result, Moscow will try by any means to avoid  tensions in relations with anyone. And, at least, not become its  initiator.

On May 20, the son-in-law of the former President of Armenia Serzh  Sargsyan, Mikael Minasyan, stated that the acting Prime Minister  Nikol Pashinyan agreed to new principles of demarcation and  territorial concessions in exchange for the withdrawal of Azerbaijani  troops from the territory of Armenia. In confirmation, he posted a  tripartite document on the network, which, according to his  statements, is at the stage of approval.  Pashinyan, during a speech  in parliament on the same day, confirmed the authenticity of the  draft document published on the network, stating that he was going to  sign it, "since the agreement is fully consistent with the interests  of Armenia." Meanwhile, Baku links this document with the recognition  of Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan.