ArmInfo. The current escalation on the border between Azerbaijan and Armenia is a mirror image of the lack of diplomatic relations between these countries. The interstate border has not been demarcated or delimited, and its exact configuration has yet to be agreed upon. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by a leading researcher at MGIMO of the Russian Foreign Ministry, editor-in-chief of the International Analytics magazine Sergei Markedonov.
"The news in all this is the termination of the existence of the" security belt "around the unrecognized NKR as a result of a joint statement on the cessation of hostilities on November 10, 2020. And as a consequence, the main issue in the settlement of the long-standing interstate confrontation was not the discussion of the status of Karabakh, but the provision of security on the newly emerged dividing line, "he stressed.
The latter, according to the analyst, raises new, very difficult questions. In particular, what maps and political geography to take as a basis in the process of defining boundaries. Complicating the situation, in his opinion, is not only the maximalism of Yerevan and Baku, but also the history of the collapse of the USSR in a revolutionary way, without clear legal criteria and outside strict legal formulas. The latter, among other things, raises another question - about the enclaves that existed during the unified USSR.
Real politik, according to Markedonov, today is largely determined by Baku's confidence in its own strength, backed up by Ankara. And striving to consolidate its success, Azerbaijan, first of all, is trying to push the issue of Karabakh's status into the dialogue around the peaceful settlement of the conflict to the background. By highlighting the problems of demarcation and delimitation between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, no one has yet canceled the issue of the status of Karabakh spelled out in the basic principles. Commenting on the current role of Russia in these processes, the analyst stressed that in Armenia it causes a certain skepticism. At the same time, recalling that the unilateral position of the Russian Federation will immediately reveal the critics of its peacekeeping mission in Karabakh, right up to demands for its immediate termination. In this light, he assesses the balancing of Moscow in the current conditions as a severe political necessity, which, at the very least, will be preserved until a special occasion. However, the desire for peaceful land surveying of the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, in his opinion, does not exclude a tough response from Russia in the event of the worst-case scenario.
"Yes, we see that opinion polls in Armenia have actually equalized the sympathies of Armenians towards France and Russia. However, France has not yet offered Armenia anything new that would go beyond the" basic principles. " Meanwhile, Russia today is present in the conflict region really and quite tangibly as a peacemaker, as a military ally of Armenia and as an important partner of Azerbaijan. And, unlike Turkey, it does not take a unilateral position, "he stressed.
In this light, Markedonov assesses the demarcation of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan as one of the tasks on the way of realizing the most important goal of Russia to prevent a new war in the Transcaucasus. Thus, according to his forecasts, in order to achieve an optimal result, Moscow will try by any means to avoid tensions in relations with anyone. And, at least, not become its initiator.
On May 20, the son-in-law of the former President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, Mikael Minasyan, stated that the acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan agreed to new principles of demarcation and territorial concessions in exchange for the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from the territory of Armenia. In confirmation, he posted a tripartite document on the network, which, according to his statements, is at the stage of approval. Pashinyan, during a speech in parliament on the same day, confirmed the authenticity of the draft document published on the network, stating that he was going to sign it, "since the agreement is fully consistent with the interests of Armenia." Meanwhile, Baku links this document with the recognition of Artsakh as a part of Azerbaijan.