Forecast: High geopolitical tension in the South Caucasus will not  escalate into a large-scale war

ArmInfo.The current situation in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is part of a kind of historical test for the viability of the post-Soviet countries. A  similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov,  editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of  the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the  Russian Federation.

 "In addition to Armenia and Azerbaijan, the same  test is carried out in Belarus, Moldova, Kyrgyzstan. And all this  forms a kind of arc of unrest and tension near the borders of Russia.  In fact, we are talking about the consistency of the countries that  appeared on the world map solely as a result of the collapse of the  Soviet Union. However, formal sovereignty differs from real  sovereignty. And today we are observing the general process, when the  ability of these countries to build a normal statehood, society,  economy in the long term is tested, "he stressed.

All these natural attempts of these and many other states to find  their place in the changing world, according to the analyst, are  artificially directed towards an anti-Russian channel. Moreover,  their destabilization is fueled by the financing of various  organizations, both from near and far abroad. By such stimulation of  natural processes, the geopolitical opponents of the Russian  Federation, in his opinion, are trying to entice the post-Soviet  countries, strengthen their positions and weaken Russia.

In this light, the same demarcation and delimitation problems between  Armenia and Azerbaijan, according to the analyst, are used by the  collective West and neighboring Iran in order to promote their own  interests in the region through initiative and creation of new levers  to resolve this situation. And such initiatives of the West and  Tehran, according to his estimates, fully fit into global impulses.  In particular, new trends in negotiations between the West and Iran  on Tehran's nuclear program.

In this context, Lukyanov especially emphasized the initiative and  new proposals of France in the direction of resolving the situation  both in relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and directly around  the status of Nagorno-Karabakh. At the same time, the analyst  highlighted significant differences in the approaches of the West and  the Russian Federation as members of the OSCE Minsk Group in these  issues. Plus, in his opinion, Iran is actively trying to join the  settlement of problems in the region today. The latter has problems  with Azerbaijan and recently prospects emerged for the settlement of  relations with the West.  That, in the aggregate, in the analyst's  opinion, allows Yerevan to become a very important partner for  Tehran.

"Thus, today we see a fairly high geopolitical tension in the region.  At the same time, I personally do not see the threat of its  escalation into a large-scale war. This simply will not be allowed,  this is obvious. I am convinced that the problem between Armenia and  Azerbaijan must be resolved on the basis of respect of territorial  integrity of the states. So far, Moscow has shown restraint, but I  think that if the parties to the conflict wish, it may well step up  its efforts towards solving this problem. But in any case, it must be  resolved on the spot, "the analyst concluded.