ArmInfo.Today Moscow is playing a very difficult game in order to keep the South Caucasus in the zone of its own influence. Former Artsakh Foreign Minister, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"The latest events around the Syunik region of Armenia, in particular, around Sev Lich (Black Lake), I am inclined to consider in this framework. The higher echelons of the Russian government seek to ensure the implementation of regional strategic interests of Russia by encouraging and on the contrary, endangering personal - group interests elites in Armenia and Azerbaijan, "he stressed.
According to the diplomat, this is done with the aim of forcing Yerevan and Baku to a consensus on solutions to regional problems and issues that are important specifically for Moscow. Melikyan describes this kind of foreign policy game as very complicated. Including due to the presence of influential forces outside the region, very interested in the final ousting of Russia from the South Caucasus.
Against this background, the diplomat assumes Azerbaijan feels Moscow's unwillingness to aggravate the situation and, accordingly, uses force in order to curb the Azerbaijani expansion now into the territory of Armenia. This, in turn, means that relatively small-scale Azerbaijani provocations with the aim of gaining maximum benefit in the current unstable situation can go unpunished.
"As far as I understand, such actions are being taken in order to check Moscow's readiness to fulfill its allied obligations to Yerevan. But on the other hand, a tough Russian reaction to Baku's actions may lead to a demand for the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Artsakh. This will put Russia in a very difficult situation." he thinks.
At the same time, in any case, according to the diplomat's forecasts, Baku's possible refusal to withdraw its military to their former positions sharply increases the likelihood of a military clash. Which, one way or another, will force Moscow to decide. And that in any variant of its actions will lead to the formation of a qualitatively new military-political situation in the entire South Caucasus.
On May 12, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces crossed the border in the area of Sev Lich, deepening into the territory of Armenia up to 3.5 kilometers in order to establish control over the lake. On May 13, Yerevan officially turned to the CSTO for help in this regard. And on May 14, acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan turned personally to Russian President Vladimir Putin for help. According to the latest data, as a result of negotiations, part of the saboteurs withdrew 2 kilometers, however, Azerbaijani soldiers still remain on the territory of Armenia.