Analyst: France gave Pashinyan room to maneuver

ArmInfo. We see that France provides the Armenian leadership with room for political maneuvering in order to resolve the problem around the Syunik region. However, we  also see Yerevan's reluctance to take advantage of these  opportunities. Independent analyst Saro Saroyan expressed this  opinion to ArmInfo.

On May 13, in a conversation with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol  Pashinyan, French President Emmanuel Macron, voicing France's  commitment to respecting the territorial integrity of Armenia,  stressed the need for the immediate withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops  from the territory of Armenia. "France wants the UN Security Council  to find a solution to the tension that has developed in the region to  restore regional stability and security," the Elysee Palace said in a  statement.

"At the heart of Macron's concern and proposals is a completely  obvious next round in Russia's rapprochement with Turkey. Without a  doubt, Aliyev would not have dared to invade Syunik without Moscow's  consent. Another question is in what form this consent was given. But  in any case, it in turn means that this entire operation was  coordinated with Erdogan, "he stressed.  Such geopolitical  transformations, according to Saroyan's estimates, brought the  situation to a completely different level. And the French proposal to  submit the issue to the UN Security Council speaks of Paris'  understanding of the gravity of this situation. According to the  analyst, trying in this way to balance what is happening, the West is  trying to secure legal and political justification, in other words,  leverage for its own actions in this situation.

However, according to the analyst, judging from the published content  of the telephone conversation with the French President, Pashinyan's  consent to the French proposals is not visible. This once again  confirms the fact that the actions of the Armenian Prime Minister are  constrained by the Kremlin. But Pashinyan's lack of consent to  Macron's proposals once again demonstrates that the very difficult  situation in which Armenia faces has become a natural result of the  long-term policy of its own leadership. 

"All these years, Armenia has not left the pro-Russian line in  foreign policy, relying solely on Moscow to ensure its own security.  And the fact that today, as we see, these security guarantees are not  in practice, is a natural result of this very policy of Yerevan. No  matter how paradoxical it may seem at first glance, "he stressed.   Commenting on Armenia's possibilities to get out of the current  situation, Saroyan noted that any path primarily depends on the  leadership of the country. In this light, he stressed that the state  mechanisms necessary for this are now concentrated in the hands of  incompetent, spineless and powerless people. And the country is in  the absence of politicians capable of coming up with fundamentally  new solutions.

"To our great regret, we have to admit that in terms of the  institutions and persons governing our state, we have reached the  bottom. The situation around Sev Lich speaks of this. Dealing with  this serious situation requires strong-willed decisions. And  strong-willed decisions require strong-willed politicians, among  other things endowed with the knowledge and experience to take such  serious steps. These people are overwhelmed by fear, and they cannot  and do not want to make independent decisions in the direction of  serious changes, "the analyst concluded.

On the morning of May 12, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces crossed the  border in the area of Lake Sev Lich, deepening into the territory of  Armenia up to 3.5 kilometers in order to establish control over the  lake. In the evening of the same day, at a meeting of the Security  Council of Armenia, acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described  what happened in the Syunik region as a sabotage move. He also  assessed this situation as at least close to a crisis. The day  before, Yerevan officially turned to the CSTO for help in this  regard.