ArmInfo. The news about the preparation by France and Russia of concrete joint initiatives in the direction of stabilizing the situation in Artsakh could have been ignored at all, if not for one important point - the preparation by the collective West for the process of "reset 2.0". A similar opinion was expressed by ArmInfo expert of the Georgian Center for Strategic Analysis, political scientist Gela Vasadze.
"Last November, the Russians seriously expected to push back the OSCE Minsk Group and remain alone with Armenia and Azerbaijan. The presence of Turkey in this format was assumed by Moscow only in symbolic terms. But then it turned out that this configuration does not suit either Azerbaijan or Turkey. As a result, today I personally have the impression that Moscow is quite ready to "return to Minsk", where instead of the inconvenient Ankara, it is waiting for more comfortable partners in the framework of this case, represented by Washington and Paris," he said.
And Armenia, with a properly set policy, according to the forecasts of the Georgian political scientist, can quite extract dividends from the emerging process between Russia on the one hand and France with the United States on the other. The whole question here rests on the degree of correctness and the degree of miscalculation in the formulation of this policy.
The recognition of the Armenian Genocide by US President Joe Biden raises one main question for Vasadze : why did this happen now? The number one reason, according to the political scientist , is that Turkey has ceased to be an absolutely obedient satellite of the United States, and is building its own project, trying to become an independent regional force. At the same time, the recognition of the genocide by Biden, in his opinion, does not mean a complete break in the existing US-Turkish relations.
"First of all, because for any regional project, integration into global projects is a serious bonus, the key to ensuring its future success. There are exactly two such global projects today - Euro-Atlantic and Chinese. Moreover, the latter is a natural opponent of the Turkic project that is being hatched in Ankara. And in all the surrounding regions: in the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and North Africa, the Turks are competing not with the Euro-Atlantic project, but with the Russian and Iranian projects. In some places, with certain Western countries, " he stressed.
The second reason that prompted Biden to recognize the Armenian Genocide, in Vasadze's opinion, is the extreme inconvenience of Erdogan as a partner for the current US administration. Accordingly, the United States will do everything to weaken Erdogan as much as possible, and thus, Biden's decision on the genocide was quite an expected blow to the Turkish president. For Azerbaijan, all this, according to the Georgian political scientist, was an opportunity to express support for Turkey on all platforms. At the same time, the process of turning Turkey into the main guarantor of Azerbaijan's security has already been launched. Moscow, of course, will resist, but Aliyev and his entourage have already made their choice, which they will not refuse under any circumstances.
For Armenia, the recognition of the genocide by the US president, according to Vasadze, was a kind of psychological "compensation" for the military defeat last fall. And this, of course, is a bonus for Prime Minister Pashinyan on the eve of early parliamentary elections. At the same time, according to his forecasts, this will certainly not create prerequisites for Armenia's departure to the West, since the Kremlin will never allow such a departure.
"For Moscow, the issue of presence in Armenia means the issue of presence in the entire South Caucasus. That is why the Russians from Armenia will never leave and will wring the neck of anyone who tries to make gestures in the opposite direction. And "anyone" understands all this perfectly. Russia's withdrawal from Armenia is possible only in the conditions of a crisis of the level of 1917 or 1991, " Vasadze concluded.