Forecast: Russia will wring the neck of anyone who tries to turn  Armenia to the West

ArmInfo. The news about the preparation by France and Russia of concrete joint initiatives in the direction of stabilizing the situation in Artsakh could have been  ignored at all, if not for one important point - the preparation by  the collective West for the process of "reset 2.0". A similar opinion  was expressed by ArmInfo expert of the Georgian Center for Strategic  Analysis, political scientist Gela Vasadze.

"Last November, the Russians seriously expected to push back the OSCE  Minsk Group and remain alone with Armenia and Azerbaijan. The  presence of Turkey in this format was assumed by Moscow only in  symbolic terms. But then it turned out that this configuration does  not suit either Azerbaijan or Turkey. As a result, today I personally  have the impression that Moscow is quite ready to "return to Minsk",  where instead of the inconvenient Ankara, it is waiting for more  comfortable partners in the framework of this case, represented by  Washington and Paris," he said.

And Armenia, with a properly set policy, according to the forecasts  of the Georgian political scientist, can quite extract dividends from  the emerging process between Russia on the one hand and France with  the United States on the other. The whole question here rests on the  degree of correctness and the degree of miscalculation in the  formulation of this policy.

The recognition of the Armenian Genocide by US President Joe Biden  raises one main question for Vasadze : why did this happen now? The  number one reason, according to the political scientist , is that  Turkey has ceased to be an absolutely obedient satellite of the  United States, and is building its own project, trying to become an  independent regional force. At the same time, the recognition of the  genocide by Biden, in his opinion, does not mean a complete break in  the existing US-Turkish relations.

"First of all, because for any regional project, integration into  global projects is a serious bonus, the key to ensuring its future  success. There are exactly two such global projects today -  Euro-Atlantic and Chinese. Moreover, the latter is a natural opponent  of the Turkic project that is being hatched in Ankara. And in all the  surrounding regions: in the South Caucasus, the Middle East, and  North Africa, the Turks are competing not with the Euro-Atlantic  project, but with the Russian and Iranian projects. In some places,  with certain Western countries, " he stressed.

The second reason that prompted Biden to recognize the Armenian  Genocide, in Vasadze's opinion, is the extreme inconvenience of  Erdogan as a partner for the current US administration. Accordingly,  the United States will do everything to weaken Erdogan as much as  possible, and thus, Biden's decision on the genocide was quite an  expected blow to the Turkish president. For Azerbaijan, all this,  according to the Georgian political scientist, was an opportunity to  express support for Turkey on all platforms. At the same time, the  process of turning Turkey into the main guarantor of Azerbaijan's  security has already been launched. Moscow, of course, will resist,  but Aliyev and his entourage have already made their choice, which  they will not refuse under any circumstances.

For Armenia, the recognition of the genocide by the US president,  according to Vasadze, was a kind of psychological "compensation" for  the military defeat last fall. And this, of course, is a bonus for  Prime Minister Pashinyan on the eve of early parliamentary elections.   At the same time, according to his forecasts, this will certainly not  create prerequisites for Armenia's departure to the West, since the  Kremlin will never allow such a departure.

"For Moscow, the issue of presence in Armenia means the issue of  presence in the entire South Caucasus. That is why the Russians from  Armenia will never leave and will wring the neck of anyone who tries  to make gestures in the opposite direction. And "anyone" understands  all this perfectly. Russia's withdrawal from Armenia is possible only  in the conditions of a crisis of the level of 1917 or 1991, " Vasadze  concluded.