ArmInfo. How the situation in the south-east of Ukraine will develop in the near future depends entirely on the guarantees given to Kiev by its Western partners. Former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Artsakh, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"The possibility of a large-scale war still remains. At the same time, the direct involvement of the United States in the Ukrainian war is by no means mandatory. The United States can simply provide large-scale military-technical assistance to Ukraine. After that, Kiev will be able to initiate a war in order to regain control of part of its territory on its own, " he stressed.
At the same time, the diplomat emphasized the lack of common interests of the West in Ukraine. In this light, he noted the disinterest in the aggravation of the situation and, as a result, in the deterioration of relations with Moscow, the same Germany and France. Meanwhile, Poland and the Baltic states, as can be seen from the latest statements of their leadership, are trying to form a coalition against Russia.
According to Melikyan, in order to recognize Moscow as a party to the confrontation in Ukraine, the West may well decide to set the task of directly involving Russia in military operations on the territory of Ukraine. In this light, the diplomat predicts a gradual increase in tension on the line of contact between the Ukrainian army and the armed formations of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics in the coming months.
If such a program is implemented, Melikyan expects a logical attempt to advance the military formations of the self-proclaimed republics in the direction of Mariupol in order to obtain ground communication with the Crimea. Moreover, direct Russian involvement in the war will make it possible for the Russian army already stationed in the Crimea to advance towards Odessa. With all the ensuing consequences, the main one of which will be the prospect of cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea.