Forecast: The Ukrainian scenario depends on the West`s guarantees to  Kiev

ArmInfo. How the situation in the south-east of Ukraine will develop in the near future depends entirely on the guarantees given to Kiev by its Western partners.   Former Foreign Minister of the Republic of Artsakh, Ambassador  Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar  opinion to ArmInfo.

"The possibility of a large-scale war still remains. At the same  time, the direct involvement of the United States in the Ukrainian  war is by no means mandatory. The United States can simply provide  large-scale military-technical assistance to Ukraine. After that,  Kiev will be able to initiate a war in order to regain control of  part of its territory on its own, " he stressed.

At the same time, the diplomat emphasized the lack of common  interests of the West in Ukraine. In this light, he noted the  disinterest in the aggravation of the situation and, as a result, in  the deterioration of relations with Moscow, the same Germany and  France. Meanwhile, Poland and the Baltic states, as can be seen from  the latest statements of their leadership, are trying to form a  coalition against Russia.

According to Melikyan, in order to recognize Moscow as a party to the  confrontation in Ukraine, the West may well decide to set the task of  directly involving Russia in military operations on the territory of  Ukraine. In this light, the diplomat predicts a gradual increase in  tension on the line of contact between the Ukrainian army and the  armed formations of the self-proclaimed Donetsk and Luhansk republics  in the coming months.

If such a program is implemented, Melikyan expects a logical attempt  to advance the military formations of the self-proclaimed republics  in the direction of Mariupol in order to obtain ground communication  with the Crimea. Moreover, direct Russian involvement in the war will  make it possible for the Russian army already stationed in the Crimea  to advance towards Odessa. With all the ensuing consequences, the  main one of which will be the prospect of cutting off Ukraine from  the Black Sea.